Commercial COT Index, Price, and Positioning Highlights
Commercial COT Index extremes for the week to 11 September 2026 show Natural Gas at 100% within its 26-week range, with Large Speculators net short −219,767 after a −10,856 shift and price down 4.05%. The Australian Dollar printed 94% as specs stayed net short −34,870 but improved by 4,536, while price fell 0.63%. Palladium reached 69% with specs net short −3,712, up 593 week-on-week, and price down 6.07%. Euro FX sat at 67% with specs net short −42,616 after a −17,691 move, although price rose 0.16%; Platinum was 61% with specs net long +15,976, up 976, and price down 1.47%. WTI stood at 55% as specs held +136,579, up 6,668, and price gained 9.61%, while the lowest readings included Japanese Yen and Copper at 0%, with specs net long +10,796 and +92,476 respectively.
Across markets, the Dollar Index slipped 0.04% as spec net longs edged up to +17,604; open interest was 57,858, up 16%, and the COT Index was 24%. In FX, Euro FX open interest rose 9% to 942,464, cable was flat at 318,608, and the yen’s open interest increased 21% to 499,635; the Swiss franc rose 12% to 153,683. In commodities, Natural Gas open interest was 1,823,243 (+1%) and WTI 1,939,911 (+1%), while Heating Oil gained 9.82% with spec net +11,708 (−2,371) and Gold fell 1.95% with spec net +231,960 (+3,836); Silver dropped 2.69% to spec net +26,049 (−690). Other positioning included NZD at +6,232 (+14,253) with OI 125,978 (+17%), MXN at +94,732 (+1,485) with OI 327,215 (+4%), and Copper OI at 297,491 (+5%) versus Palladium at 16,773 (+2%).
Outlook on Key Markets: Natural Gas, Japanese Yen, Copper, and Crude Oil
We should closely watch for a potential bullish reversal in natural gas as the Commercial COT Index hits 100% and large speculators push their net short positions to an extreme -219,767 contracts. Historically, such extreme commercial buying signals that the market is bottoming out, especially as global liquefied natural gas demand is projected to grow by 5% annually over the coming years. Traders should consider preparing for a sharp short squeeze if prices begin to stabilize around key support levels in the next few weeks.
The sudden surge in Japanese Yen speculative net longs by over 103,000 contracts has pushed the commercial index down to 0%, signaling an overcrowded bullish trade. While the Yen gained 2.42% last week on the back of narrow interest rate differentials, history shows that such extreme positioning often precedes a sharp near-term correction. We recommend avoiding chasing this rally and instead waiting for a pullback before entering new positions.
Copper presents a compelling dip-buying opportunity as its price dropped 1.66% despite large speculators boosting their net long positions to 92,476 contracts. With the commercial index sitting at 0% and global copper demand expected to double by 2035 to meet climate goals, this price drop looks like a temporary market inefficiency. We believe taking long positions at these discounted levels will likely yield strong returns as supply deficits continue to tighten the market.
We must also monitor Crude Oil, which surged 9.61% last week as large speculators increased their net long exposure to 136,579 contracts. Given that WTI is currently supported by tight global inventories and resilient global demand hovering near 104 million barrels per day, the upward momentum has solid fundamental backing. Traders should look to buy on minor intraday dips to ride this strong bullish trend.
