Canadian Dollar Strengthens on Firm CPI and Oil Prices
USD/CAD slid to its weakest level since 3 June on Monday, with the pair trading near 1.3852 as a softer US Dollar coincided with firmer Canadian price data. Canada’s CPI rose 3% year on year in July, above the 2.9% consensus and up from 2.8% previously; on the month, CPI increased 0.5%, matching forecasts after a 0.4% fall. Core inflation also accelerated, as the Bank of Canada’s core CPI measure climbed to 2.3% year on year from 2.1%, while the monthly rate rose 0.2% after 0.1%. Statistics Canada attributed the pickup to higher gasoline and travel tour prices, and said the Middle East conflict, including a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, added upward pressure on fuel costs.
US Dollar Dips Amid Shifts in Fed Outlook and Middle East Tensions
The US Dollar remained under pressure as markets reduced Federal Reserve tightening expectations following data pointing to weaker labour demand, softer consumer spending and easing inflation. CME FedWatch pricing indicates about a 70% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged next month. The Dollar Index was near 99.45 after dipping to 99.30, its lowest since 5 June. Oil prices stayed elevated as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained heavily restricted, supporting the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar, while Reuters reported that an Iranian official said tensions could rise if diplomacy fails and described a shift to a “fully offensive” stance.
