AUD/USD has held above its 200-day moving average since June and has carved out a run of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart, pointing to a short-term uptrend. The pair also found support near the same moving average during a pullback in November 2025, reinforcing the level’s role in recent price action. Momentum has since slowed as the advance runs into the 100-day moving average at 0.7053.
Upside targets are framed at 0.7120, then the June highs in the 0.7200 to 0.7275 area. On the downside, the 200-day moving average sits near 0.6920 and is treated as key support. A hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia hold is cited as a potential trigger for renewed short covering.
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Technical Structure and Opportunity for Derivative Traders
We expect the Australian Dollar to show strong upward momentum in the coming weeks, presenting an excellent window for derivative traders to position for a breakout. The currency pair has consistently defended its 200-day moving average near 0.6920, establishing a reliable pattern of higher highs and higher lows. This technical base mirrors the strong rebound we saw back in late 2025, confirming that buyers are actively defending this level.
With the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting tomorrow, we recommend derivative traders closely watch the 100-day moving average of 0.7053. Australia’s recent core inflation has remained sticky at 3.4%, keeping pressure on the central bank to maintain its restrictive stance. A hawkish hold from the RBA is highly likely to trigger a wave of short-covering, driving the AUD/USD pair past this immediate resistance.
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Options Strategies and Historical Context
For options traders, we suggest utilizing call spreads to target the next key resistance levels at 0.7120 and the June highs of 0.7200 to 0.7275. Implied volatility in AUD options has hovered at relatively low levels of around 8.2% recently, making long volatility strategies and straight call options highly cost-effective. Historically, when the RBA maintains a yield advantage over a softening US Federal Reserve, these technical breakouts tend to accelerate rapidly.
