EUR/USD starts the final week of July at 1.1369, staying close to the monthly low set in late June. A modest fall in energy prices on Friday tempered expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates at its Tuesday–Wednesday meeting, yet markets still price in at least one increase before year-end. Inflation risks have risen as the US–Iran conflict escalates again, while restrictions on tanker movements through the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea have lifted oil and fuel prices.
US Economic Data and Dollar Sentiment
US data have also underpinned the dollar, with S&P PMIs pointing to the fastest pace of private-sector activity growth this year and initial jobless claims dropping at the quickest rate in nearly six decades.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Trading Levels
On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.1389 within a 1.1336–1.1413 band; a break higher implies a corrective move towards 1.1420 before a decline to 1.1313, while a downside break targets 1.1313 directly, with MACD bearish. On H1, the pair reached 1.1414 and is forming a range below; the path sketched is 1.1390, then 1.1420, followed by 1.1370 and potentially 1.1313, with Stochastic turning lower.
