Sterling edged up against the US dollar but trailed most G10 peers, even after stronger-than-expected UK June retail sales and upside surprises in July preliminary PMI data. Manufacturing showed expansion at 52.8, while services rebounded from sub-50 contraction to 51.8. Attention now turns to next Thursday’s Bank of England meeting, where markets anticipate a hawkish hold alongside updated forecasts.
Rate Expectations and Market Positioning
Rates pricing implies 16bpts of tightening by September and 32bpts by November, suggesting scope for GBP moves if the BoE guides more firmly towards a near-term hike. In derivatives, options have rotated back towards downside protection following last Wednesday’s local peak, in parallel with geopolitical and domestic political concerns that have pushed UK government bond yields higher and raised fiscal risk.
Technical Signals and Key Levels
Technical signals remain neutral, with RSI near neutral; support is seen at 1.3150 and resistance at 1.3550, while 1.3300 is flagged as a near-term limit for weakness.
