Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee said inflation remains the main obstacle for US monetary policy, arguing price pressures are still moving in the wrong direction even after a PCE inflation report he described as not entirely negative. He said it is hard to judge how much of today’s inflation is temporary versus persistent, and while he saw some improvement in services, he characterised services inflation as more concerning. Core inflation, he added, remains well too high and continues to trend unfavourably, leaving the inflation side of the Fed’s mandate as the central problem.
On communications, Goolsbee reiterated his unease with forward guidance and said he does not want to commit to multi-year forecasts, while expressing no objection to the dot plot. He welcomed a Fed chair-led task force reviewing options for the dot plot and supported efforts to streamline the Fed statement. On artificial intelligence, he warned that if markets price in future productivity gains and consumers bring forward spending on that basis, it could generate overheating and inflationary pressure. He also said wages are not a strong leading indicator for inflation, as prices can accelerate before pay rises follow.
Fed Policy Outlook And Market Rate Expectations
We see these comments as a clear signal that the Fed’s primary focus remains on stubborn inflation. With the latest Core PCE report for May showing a persistent 3.1% year-over-year rate, the “inflation side of the mandate” is indeed the main challenge. This hawkish stance suggests the Federal Funds Rate, currently holding at 5.50%, is unlikely to be cut anytime soon.
In response, we believe the derivatives market may be pricing in overly optimistic rate cuts for the end of 2026. Given this hawkish tone, positioning for a “higher-for-longer” scenario by selling SOFR futures contracts appears prudent. This strategy directly challenges the market’s current expectation of two quarter-point cuts before year-end.
Volatility, AI Risks, And Equity Market Hedging
The uncertainty highlighted around services inflation suggests an increase in market volatility ahead of key data releases. We anticipate that implied volatility on options will rise, particularly around the July CPI and PCE reports. Consequently, we are considering long positions in VIX call options as a way to profit from potential market turbulence.
The warning about AI-driven expectations creating overheating risks is particularly relevant for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index. Sustained high interest rates typically put pressure on growth stock valuations, which have seen significant expansion since the AI boom of 2023-2024. Therefore, we are looking at purchasing protective puts on major equity indices to hedge against a potential pullback in the coming weeks.
