Japan’s Tankan non-manufacturing outlook index was 29 in the first quarter. This was above the forecast of 28.
The reading indicates the expected business conditions in Japan’s non-manufacturing sector. The result was 1 point higher than expected.
Implications For Japans Domestic Economy
The Tankan survey’s strong non-manufacturing outlook at 29 confirms the resilience of Japan’s domestic economy. This beat suggests that the service sector, a key driver of growth, is confident despite global uncertainties. We see this as reinforcing the case for the Bank of Japan to continue its path of monetary policy normalization.
This positive sentiment is supported by the latest wage negotiation data from March 2026, which indicated an average pay increase of 4.1%, the highest in over three decades. With Japan’s core inflation for February holding firm at 2.5%, well above the BoJ’s target, the pressure for another interest rate hike is building. We believe the central bank now has sufficient evidence of a sustainable wage-price cycle.
For currency traders, this points towards a stronger yen in the near term. The growing prospect of another BoJ rate hike contrasts with expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut rates by mid-year. Therefore, we should consider buying put options on the USD/JPY pair to position for a potential decline.
In the equity markets, the strong domestic outlook is a bullish signal for the Nikkei 225 index. A vibrant services sector directly boosts corporate earnings for a wide range of Japanese companies. We should look to purchase Nikkei call options, anticipating the index will climb on the back of this domestic economic strength.
Market Context And Policy Outlook
We are looking at a very different environment than we were after the Bank of Japan’s historic decision to end negative rates back in March 2025. At that time, the market was uncertain about the follow-through. Today’s data provides that clarity, suggesting the pace of future rate hikes could be faster than previously anticipated.
