The ECB Watchers’ Conference is set to feature Christine Lagarde, Philip Lane, Olli Rehn and Robert Holzmann discussing geopolitical risks and euro area monetary policy. The ECB is expected to reiterate that it is ready to act, but needs more time to assess risks, and that the Governing Council is in a stronger position than in 2022.
March PMIs showed diverging trends in France and Germany. France’s services PMI fell to 48.3 (TDS/mkt: 49.0), signalling a faster contraction as demand weakened amid geopolitical uncertainty and pre-election caution.
France Germany PMI Divergence
Germany’s manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 (TDS: 49.0; mkt: 49.5), the strongest production growth in over four years. This improvement was linked to increased orders tied to the Middle East conflict and stockpiling.
Input costs rose in both countries, largely due to energy and materials. Firms in neither economy had yet passed these costs through to consumers.
Employment conditions weakened in both France and Germany. Jobs were cut faster and hiring slowed, while business sentiment deteriorated amid uncertainty linked to the Iran conflict.
The European Central Bank remains in a holding pattern, signalling it needs more time before making policy moves. This implies short-dated rate volatility (such as on Euribor options) may be overpriced in the near term, and with the deposit rate at 3.50% the market’s expectation for a summer rate cut is being tempered by this cautious messaging.
Cross Market Relative Value
The divergence between Europe’s two largest economies presents a relative value opportunity. A potential approach is positioning for German outperformance via DAX call options while pairing with CAC 40 puts, aiming to isolate French weakness from broader European beta.
Rising input costs, driven by Brent back above $95 a barrel, remain a key pipeline risk that has not yet shown up in consumer inflation. The February 2026 HICP reading of 2.8% suggests inflation is still sticky, and any evidence of cost pass-through could force the ECB’s hand later this year; PPI prints are a key leading indicator to monitor.
Worsening business sentiment tied to the Iran conflict argues for downside protection. Given the sharp policy pivots seen in 2022 (as a reminder when looking back from 2025), out-of-the-money Euro Stoxx 50 puts could provide a relatively cost-effective hedge against a broader risk-off move driven by geopolitical escalation.
