Retail sales in the United States showed a year-over-year decrease, moving from 3.5% to 3.3% in November. The data indicates a slight slowdown in consumer spending during this period.
The EUR/USD pair remained stable, hovering around 1.1650 after the release of US data. Meanwhile, gold prices continued to climb, trading near record highs of $4,640, buoyed by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and easing US Treasury yields.
Cryptocurrency Market Trends
Bitcoin maintained its position above $95,000 as ETF inflows totalled $753 million, reflecting solid demand. Ethereum also witnessed a positive trend, positioning itself to surpass the 100-day EMA, driven by improved sentiment.
Jerome Powell’s leadership term at the Federal Reserve is nearing its end amid divided opinions on monetary policy. Hyperliquid’s value exceeded $26.00, supported by improved on-chain metrics and heightened derivatives market involvement.
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The drop in year-over-year retail sales signals a cooling consumer, a trend we have been watching since the third quarter of 2025. This aligns with last week’s Consumer Price Index data, which showed core inflation dipping to 2.8%, reinforcing market expectations for rate relief. The softness in spending suggests the Federal Reserve’s previous rate hikes are continuing to work through the economy.
Market Implications and Trading Strategies
However, we see a clear divergence between this data and the Fed’s cautious tone, with some members remaining wary of cutting rates too soon. The surprisingly strong December jobs report from last year, which added 210,000 payrolls, gives hawkish members a strong argument to delay any policy pivot. This uncertainty is creating a prime environment for volatility ahead of the next FOMC meeting.
We believe traders should consider using options to trade this indecision, such as buying VIX calls or straddles on major indices. Looking back at the communication disconnect we saw in late 2023, the period just before the Fed confirmed its pivot was marked by sharp moves. Positioning in interest rate futures for fewer rate cuts than the market currently implies could also be a prudent strategy.
Gold’s position near record highs is fueled by rate cut expectations that may not materialize quickly, making it a difficult trade. Using call spreads on gold futures is a sensible way to capture further upside while defining risk. If the Fed maintains its hawkish stance longer than anticipated, the resulting dollar strength could trigger a pullback.
In contrast, the digital asset space shows clearer momentum, with Bitcoin holding above $95,000. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $1.2 billion in net inflows in the first two weeks of January, suggesting strong institutional demand. For derivatives traders, buying call options on Bitcoin or Ethereum offers a way to leverage this bullish trend while limiting downside risk.
