In December, China’s year-on-year imports increased by 5.7%, surpassing the forecast of 0.9%. This rise indicates a considerable growth in import activities compared to the expectations.
Gold reached a new record high, trading at $4,620 per troy ounce, benefitting from increased safe-haven demand. The market’s movement is influenced by bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, following softer inflation in the United States.
Meme Coins Show Gains
Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe, known as meme coins, showed improvements with gains ranging from 7% to 14%. DOGE and SHIB remained stable after their recovery, while PEPE continued to extend its gains.
The Federal Reserve has received grand jury subpoenas connected to pressure from the Department of Justice, indicating increased scrutiny. This development adds to the uncertainty surrounding the central bank’s future policy actions.
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The stronger-than-expected Chinese import data from December 2025 is a significant green shoot for the global economy. This 5.7% jump, crushing the 0.9% forecast, suggests robust domestic demand that we haven’t seen for some time. We should consider call options on commodities like copper and oil, as well as on commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar.
Gold and Political Pressures
This renewed Chinese demand coincides with a flight to safety, pushing gold to new records above $4,600. The political pressure on the Federal Reserve, evidenced by the recent subpoenas, is creating uncertainty that traditional monetary policy models can’t account for. This environment makes owning volatility and safe havens a prudent strategy.
Given this backdrop, we believe buying call spreads on gold futures (/GC) offers a defined-risk way to participate in further upside. The primary drivers are not just geopolitical fears but also growing market bets on Fed rate cuts, with the CME FedWatch tool now pricing in an over 85% chance of a cut by March. This follows the cooling US CPI data we saw in the last quarter of 2025, which showed core inflation finally dipping below 3%.
In the currency space, the USD/JPY pair approaching 160.00 is entering intervention territory. We should look at buying strangles, which would profit from either a sharp spike through this level or a dramatic reversal forced by the Bank of Japan. We all remember the sharp yen strengthening that occurred back in late 2024 when the Ministry of Finance stepped in under similar circumstances.
Meanwhile, the Pound remains weak against the Dollar ahead of key US data releases later this week. The UK’s near-zero GDP growth in the final months of 2025 continues to weigh on the currency. We see an opportunity in buying puts on the GBP/USD pair (/6B) as a short-term tactical trade.
