Insights 
VT 
Key Points
- U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has lifted WTI prices in the near term
- OPEC+ keeps oil output steady despite rising geopolitical tensions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude oil benchmark, is trading around $57.30 during early Asian hours on Monday. Prices edged higher as tensions between the United States and Venezuela injected a fresh risk premium into the oil market.
U.S.–Venezuela Tensions Lift Oil
WTI moved higher following reports of a U.S. military operation in Venezuela, including the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, which reverberated across global energy markets.
This unprecedented development has significantly elevated political and security risks surrounding Venezuelan crude flows, raising concerns over future supply stability.
U.S. President Donald Trump signalled that further military action could follow should Venezuela’s interim leadership fail to comply with U.S. policy demands, adding to market uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington would seek to exert leverage over Venezuela’s oil resources without overseeing the country’s day-to-day operations, reinforcing ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Technical Analysis
USOIL (USOUSD) traded higher to $57.26, rebounding from a support level at $56.70. Trading volumes remained slightly lower during the Asian session, while volatility is expected to increase as the U.S. market opens.
The next resistance level for USOIL is seen at $58.50. Prices could break above this level and potentially establish a new high for 2026.
The MACD histogram continues to display bullish bars, indicating that buyers remain active. However, traders may prefer to wait for the New York session for clearer momentum. As the signal line remains below the 50 level, a decisive move above 50 would provide stronger confirmation for long positions.
Cautious Outlook
Rising political risks have added upside support, though ample supply keeps sharp rallies in check. Any gains are likely to be gradual yet sustained if tensions continue.
Stay alert to developments and monitor inventories and political updates, as markets remain sensitive to sudden news.
