Greece’s industrial production saw a year-on-year decline, decreasing to 6.4% in October. This follows a previous measurement of 6.8%.
The change indicates a downturn in industrial production within the country for the specified period. These figures provide insight into the current state of Greece’s industrial sector.
Cooling Year Over Year Growth
We are seeing the year-over-year growth in Greek industrial production cool slightly, coming in at 6.4% for October. This is a small step down from the 6.8% we saw in September. This data suggests the rapid pace of industrial expansion may be moderating as we head into the new year.
This slowdown isn’t happening in a vacuum and aligns with a broader European trend. For instance, recent data from earlier this month showed Germany’s factory orders for October unexpectedly fell by 3.7%, a sharp contrast to the revised 0.7% growth seen the month prior. This shows that even the continent’s largest economy is facing headwinds, making the Greek slowdown part of a larger narrative.
Other indicators for Greece are pointing in the same direction. The latest manufacturing PMI reading for November, released last week, dropped to 51.8 from 52.9. While still indicating expansion, this marks the third consecutive monthly decline and signals a loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector.
Given this slowing momentum, we should consider hedging long positions. One approach is to buy puts on the Athex Composite Index with January 2026 expiration dates. This provides a cost-effective way to protect against potential downside if December and January data confirm this cooling trend.
Implications for Eurozone Policy
The data also makes a surprise interest rate hike from the European Central Bank less likely in their upcoming meetings. With inflation across the Eurozone having fallen to 2.3% in November, the lowest since mid-2021, the pressure to tighten policy has significantly eased. This environment may cap the upside, making it prudent to sell some out-of-the-money calls against existing holdings to generate income.
Looking back, we saw a similar pattern of a strong recovery followed by a growth moderation in 2018. That period did not signal a downturn but led to several months of range-bound trading in the Greek market. This historical precedent suggests that we might be entering a phase of consolidation rather than a sharp reversal.
