Goldman Sachs maintains its Brent crude oil forecast for 2026 at $56 per barrel. This decision remains despite OPEC+’s recent announcement of increased production.
The bank anticipates that OPEC+ will halt further supply increases. This expectation arises from the build-up in OECD oil stockpiles, which may deter the group from raising output further.
Brent Crude Forecast Steady
We are holding our forecast for Brent crude steady at $56 per barrel for 2026, creating a bearish long-term outlook from today’s perspective in August 2025. This long-term view is shaped by the expectation that OPEC+ will likely pause any further production increases. The key reason for this anticipated pause is a noticeable build-up in oil stockpiles across OECD nations.
Recent data from the Energy Information Administration for July 2025 confirms this trend, showing OECD commercial oil stocks rose by over 12 million barrels. This rise has pushed inventories slightly above their five-year average for the first time since the supply tightness we saw back in 2024. This signals that global supply is beginning to materially outpace consumption.
For the coming weeks, this creates a specific trading environment where the upside for crude oil appears limited. While an OPEC+ pause might prevent a sharp price collapse, the high inventories will act as a ceiling on any significant rally. Therefore, we expect a period of range-bound trading or a slow grind lower.
Trading Strategies and Market Outlook
A prudent response for derivative traders would be to consider strategies that profit from sideways movement or a slight decline. Selling out-of-the-money call spreads on October 2025 contracts could be an effective way to collect premium. This approach benefits from time decay if Brent fails to break above recent highs.
For those wanting to position for the larger, longer-term drop, buying put options with later expiration dates, such as for March 2026, makes sense. This aligns with the fundamental view that prices will eventually move towards the $56/bbl level. It allows traders to look past any short-term volatility while staying positioned for the core forecast.
The immediate market is therefore caught between potential producer discipline and weakening demand fundamentals. Traders should closely monitor upcoming weekly inventory reports and any statements from OPEC+ members for signs of a shift. The key will be to avoid being caught in a short-term rally while the broader trend points downward.
