Insights 
VT 
Gold prices have been steady, trading near the top end of the weekly range as traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. This report is crucial in guiding expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, which influence US Dollar demand and, consequently, gold prices.
Market sentiment suggests the Federal Reserve may resume rate cuts soon, which limits the US Dollar’s strength. Trade uncertainties persist despite new agreements, notably between the US and Vietnam and ongoing US-India tariff reduction talks, which support gold prices somewhat.
Us Private Payrolls Data
US private payrolls data showed a decline of 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first drop in over two years, bolstering expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. Traders are considering a 25% chance of a reduction in the July meeting, with further cuts likely before the year’s end.
Technically, gold’s recent breakout above the 200-hour Simple Moving Average suggests a bullish trend. The gold price faces immediate resistance around the $3,363-$3,365 level, with a potential target of $3,400 if crossed, while support lies near $3,330-3,329. The NFP release is watched closely due to its volatility and effect on the US Dollar.
The situation outlined reveals a notable pattern in the market, where gold prices are hovering near the high end of the recent range. That alone isn’t new, but what’s interesting here is the reason behind it—investors are holding their breath for the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls data. We’re looking squarely at this report not because it tells us everything about the US economy, but because it directly affects how the Federal Reserve might move with interest rates. And when the Fed shifts rates, the Dollar reacts—usually with strength when rates rise and weakness when they fall. Gold, being priced in Dollars, often moves in the opposite direction.
So the core of it is this: softer labour data implies weaker economic momentum. That’s the cue the market is using to price in rate cuts. When private payroll figures dropped last month by over thirty thousand, it was the first time in more than two years we saw such a contraction. That helps explain why markets are now leaning towards the possibility that the Fed could loosen policy as early as July.
Powell And Fed Implications
Powell and his colleagues have implied that they need to see more than just one disappointing number. However, back-to-back weak indicators often build a stronger case than a single data point. In response, the probability of a rate cut is now being put at roughly one-in-four for this month’s meeting, with another adjustment increasingly likely before we close the year. That figure, though relatively low, shows just how quickly expectations can flip, and if this Friday’s report comes in worse than forecasted, those odds could double very swiftly.
Now, looking at caution on the technical side, we are seeing clear support near $3,330, with sellers appearing just above $3,360. That upper zone has held for several sessions, so any clean break above it can’t be ignored. If momentum builds from a dovish signal in the jobs report, we’d expect a test towards $3,400—that’s the next logical area where long positions could start to consider lightening up. Support nearer $3,329 is holding so far. Downward momentum that takes gold beneath this could unwind the whole recent bullish structure, and any move below that would signal a reassessment of broader sentiment.
Tariff discussions in the background—particularly between Washington and New Delhi, as well as the trade linkages being expanded with Hanoi—add a layer of insulation against Dollar strength. These agreements don’t change Federal Reserve policy directly, but they do play into the broader view that global trade dynamics remain unresolved. Uncertainty in one area often feeds demand in safe-haven assets like gold. While these developments aren’t the lead story, they do subtly sustain support beneath precious metals by keeping systemic risks from fading away entirely.
From our view, levels matter more than usual over the coming ten days. A rally through resistance while NFP surprises to the downside would reinforce a weekly strategy of long bias. If data surprises to the upside—meaning employment is stronger or wage gains accelerate—the entire narrative supporting lower rates evaporates quickly. That would likely see gold stall at higher resistance zones, and prompt Dollar buyers to step in, forcing gold positions to reassess their exposure quickly.
Direction in the Dollar and US yields remains largely range-bound leading into the report, so setups reliant on clear macro confirmation should wait until there’s clarity. This is not the time for assumption-based repositions. Chart structure combined with clearly defined macro inputs will offer higher reward setups than simply anticipating Fed pivots. For now, price remains trapped in conviction-lacking flows, awaiting a catalyst, and the next 24 hours could define that.
