Insights 
VT 
There are expiring options for EUR/USD at the 1.1750 and 1.1800 levels. These expiries could influence price action during the current session, with limited other catalysts present at the moment.
The pair’s upward momentum remains strong based on technical analysis. Post month-end trading, traders might reconsider their positions as July begins, while the US jobs report this Thursday could introduce caution.
Current Dollar Sentiment
Currently, dollar sentiment appears weak, as reflected in charts. The focus will be on whether there is a continued sell-off, particularly in light of Trump’s policies.
The current article outlines how expiring options at two key levels—1.1750 and 1.1800—could drive temporary responses in the EUR/USD pair’s prices, especially given the absence of fresh market-moving events. It also notes that the dollar is struggling across various timeframes, with positioning possibly due for adjustment as one trading month ends and another begins. Traders are warned to watch for Thursday’s US jobs report, which may prompt participants to reassess dollar-heavy positions. Trump’s policy trajectory, perhaps perceived as disruptive or inflationary, is feeding into the broader dollar bias.
Looking ahead, we should stay alert to sharp moves occasionally triggered by option expiries, particularly in sessions with thin news flow. If spot prices hover near a large expiry—in this case around 1.1750 or 1.1800—short-term volatility can pick up as parties try to steer price action in their favour. This sort of friction often dissipates after expiry time has passed, so it’s best not to over-commit positions based strictly on these dynamics. Instead, use them as timing cues or adjustment points for risk.
The ongoing weakness in the greenback seems rooted more in liquidity flows and political settings than traditional macro surprises. Conservatives’ policy signals, combined with increasing chatter on fiscal mismanagement and trade uncertainties, have added pressure, creating downward pressure even when US data haven’t been poor. The market may well continue questioning whether these choices will impact inflation or growth. That’s a layer we need to start pricing in beyond technicals alone.
Future Market Indicators
Charts show EUR/USD continuing to climb with solid impulse since mid-June. Most retracements have been shallow, and buyers have been stepping in early. So long as key support levels remain intact, favouring the trend direction makes more sense than fading it, at least in intraday setups. Still, we expect traders to thin out ahead of the US employment data. Volumes might fall off mid-week, which can flatten intraday ranges and exaggerate small moves.
Month-end flows have mostly passed, but start-of-month adjustments could still alter positioning this week. That’s usually driven less by immediate events and more by model-based rebalancing and fund flows. Short-term setups should be watched closely for signs of reversal or acceleration around these re-entry points.
We should also be prepared for data to override charts. The jobs report on Thursday has the potential to either validate or challenge the narrative of US economic drift. If figures miss even slightly, with the dollar already under pressure, we’d expect overshooting to the downside. On the other hand, a strong result may spark only a modest bounce unless backed by upward revisions or wage inflation.
Options traders should tread lightly around expiry times today and again in early Thursday morning sessions, allowing liquidity to rebuild after large strikes are cleared and short gamma disappears. Directional positions can still work once that cluster is resolved, especially if macro drivers are aligned. Keep an eye on positioning metrics and delta concentrations that may act as magnets within narrow trading windows.
In brief, with dollar sentiment already leaning negative, any additional policy news or weak figures may prompt another squeeze higher in euro. But be wary of chasing breaks too late in the session, particularly when liquidity conditions worsen. A more patient strategy could be to pick spots when spreads widen or when algos temporarily exaggerate a move. We’re watching this closely.
