Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- Gold held around $3,260/oz on Monday, nearing the lowest level since late May.
- Israel-Iran ceasefire and fresh trade deals reduce safe-haven demand for bullion.
Gold traded marginally lower on Monday, slipping to around $3,260 per ounce as market sentiment shifted away from safe-haven assets. The metal hit a low of $3,247.91 before recovering slightly to close at $3,280.48.
The ongoing truce between Israel and Iran continues to hold, easing fears of a broader Middle East conflict. This, combined with upbeat news on trade diplomacy, has sapped demand for gold.
President Donald Trump recently announced a signed deal with China, and hinted at a “very big” trade pact with India. Reports also suggest that agreements with Mexico and Vietnam are close, while discussions with Japan and others are ongoing.
Technical Analysis
On the 15-minute XAUUSD chart, gold remains in a recovery phase after bottoming out late last week. Price has moved above the short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30), supported by bullish MACD crossover and strengthening histogram bars. However, the upside appears capped near $3,283.32, with momentum still fragile.
Picture: Gold steady, eyes on $3,300 breakout zone, as seen on the VT Markets app
If peace efforts continue and trade negotiations make further headway, gold may struggle to break decisively above $3,285.00. A move below $3,250.00 could bring $3,230.00 into play. Any setback in geopolitical stability or weaker-than-expected US data could quickly revive support.
Fed Outlook Hinges on Labour Data
Traders are now focusing on a series of crucial US labour market releases, including job openings, ADP private payrolls, and Friday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP). These will play a key role in shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next move.
While recent commentary from Fed officials has been measured, markets still see a growing case for rate cuts later this year. A weaker labour print would bolster dovish bets and could reignite gold’s appeal as a hedge against policy easing.
A soft NFP report could see gold attempt to reclaim the $3,300 level. However, strong data would likely keep the metal under pressure, with sellers targeting $3,240 and below in the short term.
