Insights 
VT 
In May, US new home sales reached 0.623 million, falling short of the anticipated 0.69 million. This deviation indicates a decrease in housing market performance.
The EUR/USD is nearing a 2025 peak, reviving from previous setbacks. A weakening US Dollar is affecting both EUR/USD and GBP/USD, which is climbing to high daily values.
Gold Showing Recovery
Gold is showing recovery, moving from a weekly low to around $3,340 per troy ounce. This is occurring amid a softening US Dollar and mixed American yields.
Bitcoin’s value is making a comeback, aiming for $110,000, with Ethereum and XRP also expressing potential for gains. This recovery follows a drop below the $100,000 mark during a weekend sell-off.
The ongoing Israel-Iran tension is raising concerns about the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Such a closure would impact global oil markets given its strategic location.
The gap between US new home sales of 623,000 and the expected 690,000 reflects a dip in consumer confidence or affordability, possibly both. As rates remain elevated and wages struggle to keep up with rising prices, the housing sector isn’t showing the rebound some had hoped for. It’s acting as a helpful gauge for broader sentiment, especially around disposable income and domestic demand. For those of us monitoring risk appetite through indirect indicators, this flags a softer American consumer, which could reduce rate hike pressure further down the line and shift probability skews in rate-linked products.
FX Sphere Dynamics
In the FX sphere, EUR/USD appears to be firmly retracing itself back toward the upper end of its multiyear range. Its upswing is happening amid a quieter Federal Reserve and decelerating US macro data. Given how Dollar-linked carry trades have unfolded this year, the softening USD turns attention to rebalancing efforts. GBP/USD, with its own internal drivers, benefits as well—but its daily momentum readings suggest limited room unless wage data or inflation narratives shift more favourably in the UK. From our perspective, deviation from previous ranges begins a repricing process that will feature in hedging strategies across euro- and pound-cross exposures.
Gold’s bounce from the weekly low to around $3,340 p/t oz is another symptom of waning Dollar strength. While bond yields remain choppy, their inability to decisively break higher helps reinforce this precious metal’s position. We’re seeing broader macro participants rotating back into metal hedges—not for inflation this time, but for geopolitical tension and currency softness. That’s consistent with gold responding more as a liquidity move than purely as a safe haven. Futures positioning shows reopening of long contracts; options desks will likely note renewed upside skew interest.
In the broader digital asset space, Bitcoin is retracing the sharp liquidation it faced, clawing its way back toward the $110,000 level. That sell-off over the weekend highlighted fragility in thin liquidity moments, and the reversal tells us there’s still appetite especially when macro risk dissipates. Altcoins, including Ethereum and XRP, are echoing the move, although they’re trailing slightly. Sell-side flows earlier in the month have now shifted, with volatility smiles steepening again. For those engaged in crypto-derivatives, now is a time to revisit gamma exposures as directional conviction still seems reactive to broader market calm, not endogenous strength.
And tension in the Middle East, particularly concerns of a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, remains one of the major tail risks. With roughly a fifth of global oil trade moving through that corridor, any signs of escalation that threaten passage would reflect almost instantly in energy futures. Prompt spreads are particularly sensitive here—offering compression opportunities for those structuring calendar spreads, but also layering in exposure in shipping or insurance risk fields. It’s one of those external variables, not yet priced into VIX or inflation swaps, that can resurface without notice.
So immediate attention may need to rest less on rates and more on cross-asset correlations, especially in how commodity volatility could spill over into rates or FX indirectly.
