Insights 
VT 
USD/CAD sees an increase as the market anticipates Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming comments. The release of US New Home Sales data for May is also awaited, expected at 14:00 GMT, to shed light on the US housing market’s status.
The Canadian Dollar weakens against the US Dollar as USD/CAD tries to move past its recent consolidation phase. Currently trading near 1.3750, the pair is influenced by potential insights from new home sales data and Jerome Powell’s testimony.
Us New Home Sales
US Census Bureau’s report on New Home Sales measures single-family homes sold during May. Expected figures suggest 690,000 units, with April’s sales showing a large rise to 743,000 units prior to tariff changes.
Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to testify before the US Senate, addressing inflation and interest rate concerns. This is part of the semiannual Monetary Report, with implications for future Federal Reserve rate plans.
USD/CAD’s technical analysis shows a near breakout from a descending wedge pattern. The pair’s momentum remains neutral, with resistance around the 50-day SMA at 1.3795, and potential targets include April’s high of 1.4415 or June’s low of 1.3539.
Fed Chair Powell Testimony
The Dollar continues to strengthen against its northern neighbour as markets hold their breath ahead of Powell’s scheduled remarks. His appearance before the Senate carries weight, particularly as inflation remains sticky and rate decisions hang in the balance. Naturally, we’re watching all the usual signals for indications of a shift, but that doesn’t mean we can assume any sweeping policy change just yet.
Meanwhile, we’re also tracking the latest US housing numbers, which are likely to add fuel to the discussion. With home sales expected to cool slightly from last month’s surge, the market is parsing whether this moderation supports a softer narrative on domestic demand, or if it’s merely seasonal fluctuation. April’s jump was largely seen as a result of pre-emptive buying before expected input cost changes kicked in—so we’re not necessarily reading into it as a broader trend reversal.
For traders scanning levels, USD/CAD is still leaning toward a potential breakout, though not all signals are blinking green. The price floats close to the 50-day average, and while there’s momentum building beneath, it’s not directional yet. Targets on either side are clear—above lies April’s high, a level not touched in months, while the base is closer to the lows seen in early June. Directional confirmation would require either a breach of these outer levels or a sharper shift in volume.
The wedge pattern identified recently hasn’t yet completed its move, and any reaction to Powell’s testimony could be the tipping point. What we’re seeing for now is a pair stuck between anticipation and hesitation, with neither side of the trade willing to commit until more data arrives.
We should factor in that the CAD is also wrestling with local pressures. Domestic economic indicators remain mixed, and the Bank of Canada isn’t likely to deliver any broad shocks in the near term. This softens the loonie’s positioning against currencies backed by more forceful monetary policy narratives.
In the sessions ahead, we ought to stay prepared for trade volume spikes timed around Powell’s speech and the new home sales figures. These events have historically delivered volatility, particularly if outcomes deviate from forecasted paths. Those positioned along the curvature of the current technical setup should be ready to manoeuvre with speed if support or resistance lines fall, as technical positioning remains tightly wound and potentially prone to a break in either direction.
Key execution points should retain tight focus on whether psychological markers—particularly those associated with recent highs—are approached or tested. If we observe a decisive daily close beyond the 1.3795 mark with increased participation, the argument in favour of extended upside gains strengthens. But should the pair falter, particularly under soft housing data or dovish signals from Washington, pullbacks could spark tests near early summer’s range base.
Over the next few sessions, decisiveness around policy direction and consumer strength may remain the dominant drivers, not purely technical setups or isolated data prints. Patterns suggest pressure is building—we may be near a pivot point.
