Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- Nikkei 225 rose 1% to close at 39,349.15, with a high of 39,389.65.
- Japanese tech stocks tracked Nvidia’s record-breaking rally as AI optimism spread globally.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed sharply by 1% on Thursday to close at 39,349.15, reaching its highest level since February. The index touched an intraday high of 39,389.65, propelled by a global tech surge following fresh record highs in U.S. chip giant Nvidia.
Nvidia reclaimed its crown as the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, reigniting bullish momentum across AI-related stocks globally. Japanese semiconductor and tech firms followed suit, with Advantest jumping 4.3%, Tokyo Electron rising 1.7%, Lasertec gaining 1.5%, and SoftBank Group climbing a 2.8%.
War Calm and BoJ Dovishness Support Risk Mood
The Iran-Israel ceasefire has so far held, giving global equity markets—including Japan’s—a sense of relief. Markets responded positively to news that the U.S. intends to engage in formal talks with Tehran in the coming week. The reduced threat of regional escalation helped lift risk sentiment across Asia.
At home, the Bank of Japan’s June Summary of Opinions revealed a cautious stance on monetary tightening. Several board members favoured maintaining accommodative policy, citing trade headwinds and fragile global conditions.
This dovish tilt reduced yen pressure and provided further breathing room for equity valuations, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors such as tech and industrials.
Continued dovish guidance from the BoJ could further support Nikkei upside, but traders will watch the yen’s behaviour closely. A sharp rebound in the yen or signs of tightening abroad could spark rotation out of equities.
Technical Analysis
The 15-minute Nikkei225 chart shows a sharp breakout from consolidation around the 39,000 level. The MACD lines crossed bullishly, with histogram bars accelerating to the upside. Price action remains decisively above all key moving averages (5, 10, 30), suggesting strong momentum. The surge from the early session low of 38,957.65 reflects firm intraday conviction.
Picture: Nikkei jumps on tech strength and BOJ stability bets, as seen on the VT Markets app
With the index sitting near its top range, resistance at 39,400–39,500 may cap short-term upside unless Wall Street extends its lead. If profit-taking sets in, support could form around 39,000.
Momentum remains strong with bullish technicals and supportive macro factors—especially the ceasefire, BOJ’s cautious tightening, and yen depreciation.
Stay alert to support holding around 38,800. A break above 39,500 would open the way to mid-July resistance and Reuters projections of 40,000+ by end-June. Conversely, any reversal in global risk or BOJ pivot could pull the index back toward 38,000.
