Insights 
VT 
EURUSD buyers defended the 1.1445 support level, prompting a reverse move higher. The EURUSD pair retests Friday’s high, with a move above the 100-/200-hour moving averages indicating an upward bias.
During the Asian session, the EURUSD stalled at the 200-hour moving average around 1.1518 before dipping below the 100-hour line at 1.1496. Buyers intervened as the pair approached the previous swing low at 1.1445.
Fed Remarks Impact
Dovish comments from Fed Governor Bowman resulted in fresh USD selling, echoing hints from Friday about a potential July rate cut. This led to a rise above the hourly averages, with the pair nearing Friday’s peak at 1.1543. Breaking above this could target further highs at 1.1578, 1.1614, and 1.16297.
If the pair fails to maintain above the 1.1518-1.1496 range, sellers might regain momentum towards 1.1466 and the 1.1445 floor. Key resistance levels include 1.1543, 1.1578, 1.1614, and 1.16297. Support levels are noted at 1.1518, 1.1496, 1.1445, and 1.1416. The bias remains upward while above the specified moving average zone.
The earlier defence of 1.1445 reflects a clear area of interest where buyers feel comfortable stepping back in. This zone has proven reliable, acting as a base from which price has been able to bounce and recover, even amid fleeting selloffs. The move above both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages hinted at a re-established bullish tilt, but that alone isn’t enough — what followed was more telling.
From our perspective, price is grinding through a series of well-marked zones. The retest of last Friday’s high didn’t trigger immediate rejection, which should be watched closely. A clean hurdle over 1.1543 — and, more importantly, acceptance above it in upcoming sessions — would be needed to validate the next leg higher. The levels that follow, 1.1578 to 1.1629, are natural magnets if shelf resistance gets broken. These are not just numbers; they represent where price previously faltered, suggesting that we may encounter friction again.
Trading Outlook
We aren’t blind to the other side. If price is dragged back below 1.1496 — more so if it slices through 1.1466 and tests 1.1445 once more — then something is shifting in short-term sentiment. The worry then isn’t just about a failed rally, it opens a door to a deeper revisit of the 1.1416 area and potentially below, should dollar strength resurface.
From a trading standpoint, we remain very clear-eyed about what’s required. While price holds above that mid-1.1400s support, any dips can offer scope for tactical entries on the long side. However, we judiciously monitor momentum through volume and hourly closes to confirm commitment. Should price compress again near resistance without selling pressure weakening, that may also justify re-entry or extensions. What shouldn’t be done now is chasing direction without waiting for clean breaks and retests — far too many are caught on the wrong side acting too quickly.
As it stands, we view upward momentum as intact, but heavily dependent on holding support zones that have demonstrated reliability lately. Any slip below those levels won’t just be noise — it’ll inform whether broader sentiment is beginning to unwind or merely pausing.
