RBC analysts advise caution when considering risks to maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz, pointing out Iran’s ability to retaliate against individual tankers and ports. They argue that disruptions are not limited to a complete shutdown scenario.

The market may undervalue additional risks, and RBC suggests maintaining patience. It might take days or weeks to understand Iran’s response, and they advise against assuming that challenges are over.

RBC Initial Assessment

The initial assessment from RBC sets out a measured approach, drawing attention to vulnerabilities in shipping flows that may not be fully appreciated by the broader market. Their perspective is grounded in the idea that threats to vessel safety and continuity of port operations can emerge without a total closure—this distinction is particularly relevant for pricing models that rely on clear binary outcomes. Iran’s capacity to hinder maritime activity is not limited to large-scale blockades but can manifest in smaller, unpredictable ways that may still pressure supply chains and freight rates.

Taking that into account, we’re inclined to interpret the guidance primarily as a caution against complacency. Traders who respond solely to headline risk might overlook the wider context, which includes indirect retaliation—like interference with individual vessels or logistics nodes. These sorts of actions wouldn’t necessarily trigger immediate price spikes, but could erode confidence on route reliability and influence the structuring of derivative positions over time.

With that in mind, the takeaway is to remain flexible, not overcommit in either direction, and prepare for a gradual feed of information rather than a swift resolution. Volatility may present itself episodically depending on how response measures unfold. Adjusting exposure based on incomplete data, especially where geopolitical actions may be staggered and asymmetric, reflects a reactive strategy. That can work in short bursts but is hard to sustain and risky if misread.

Options Pricing Strategy

From an options pricing standpoint, that means implied volatility may not yet fully reflect tail risks—leaving room for recalibration once new developments materialise. Traders might want to keep delta exposure light, consider the utility of straddles or risk reversals that allow for broader movement, and avoid leaning too hard into one-sided views. The absence of full disruption doesn’t eliminate the potential for escalating costs, route inefficiencies, or insurance complications, all of which feed into pricing models whether recognised explicitly or not.

Moreover, the call for patience is not about inaction; it’s a signal to wait for better positioning. There’s often a temptation to react sharply after initial reports, but we’ve seen in previous events that slow engagement and sporadic updates from state actors often stretch well beyond initial headlines. That doesn’t favour sharp expiration profiles or narrow spread bets.

From what we see here, pacing is more valuable than prediction, and it’s easier to navigate a turbulent channel with options that don’t lock us into a single scenario.

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