US stock indices initially rose 0.5% before fluctuating on a volatile day. This day marked the second Triple Witching Day of the year, seeing $6.5 billion in notional options trades expiring, often leading to increased volatility.
The statement by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggested potential interest rate cuts in July. At the time of writing, the Dow has gained 0.26%, while the NASDAQ experienced a 0.1% loss and the S&P 500 remained flat.
Company Performance And Earnings
In company news, Kroger reported earnings exceeding expectations, with identical sales excluding fuel rising 3.2% year on year and gross margin reaching 23%. Accenture faced a decline with bookings falling on an annual basis, impacting its stock.
Home Depot showed interest in acquiring GMS for $5 billion, boosting its stock. CarMax saw a rise in stock price by over 5% after surpassing Wall Street’s earnings expectations for its fiscal first quarter despite a 1.5% dip in average prices.
The S&P 500 has been steady below resistance from December to February. Analysts are divided on its future, with some predicting new highs while others remain cautious due to potential impacts from ongoing tariff policies.
As the dust begins to settle on the second *Triple Witching Day* of the year, marked by the expiration of $6.5 billion worth of notional options contracts, volatility has become more pronounced across the broader market indices. This phenomenon has repeatedly shown that large-scale expirations don’t merely affect volumes—they actively pull and push market direction, often triggering position adjustments and fuelling sharp intraday reversals. The start of the trading day showed upward momentum, but the mood shifted quickly, with major US indices diverging in their paths by the close: the Dow eked out modest gains, the NASDAQ retreated slightly, and the S&P 500 held stubbornly level.
It is worth paying close attention to Waller’s remarks, which hinted at the possibility of a July rate cut. Such a move would mark a clear shift in the Federal Reserve’s posture, and markets tend to respond swiftly when expectations for monetary policy change. Importantly, while Waller avoided overly dovish signals, his acknowledgement of slowing economic indicators could open a window for near-term action. For us, this introduces developments in the interest rate curve that may need to be reflected in short-dated derivatives positions.
On the earnings front, Kroger’s performance exceeded forecasts, chiefly due to robust year-on-year sales growth and steady improvement in margins. Though this is not directly applicable across sectors, stable retail input costs and streamlined operations may create clarity for index constituents with similar profiles. Accenture’s declining bookings, however, tell a different story. Booking slowdowns typically serve as leading indicators, and for a firm with expansive consulting exposure, this deserves extra attention, especially when mapping sentiment across information technology contracts.
Then there’s Home Depot considering an acquisition of GMS—a deal reportedly valued at $5 billion. This signals continued confidence in the building materials sector, possibly implying expectations of steady construction demand despite macroeconomic uncertainty. It may be worth assessing spread trades in related sectors, as this type of activity tends to ripple into auxiliary industries.
CarMax meanwhile defied softness in used vehicle pricing by beating profit expectations. This combination of cost discipline and revenue resilience is often rewarded by broader market sentiment, especially in consumer discretionary categories. Still, the slight dip in average selling prices shouldn’t be ignored. Reduced pricing power paired with tighter credit availability might start skewing consumer credit names, especially those exposed to auto lending markets.
Technical Levels And Market Predictions
Now, focusing on technical levels, the S&P 500 remains shackled below resistance levels last observed across the winter months. The fact that we haven’t convincingly pushed beyond those highs points to hesitation rather than conviction. There are clear divides among market commentators. Some argue that fresh record highs remain attainable if monetary easing materialises and corporate profits stay on track. Others push against this optimism, noting potential drags from renewed trade policy tensions—including tariffs—which could inject downside risk beyond current pricing.
At this time, we find it prudent to re-evaluate delta exposures and implied volatility levels across the main indices—particularly on weekly and monthly horizons. Existing skew patterns may not yet fully capture the repricing that a confirmed shift in policy expectations or trade announcements might bring. Skew and term structure analysis may guide entry points for calendar spreads or butterfly structures.
Still, there is no need to be hasty. Just as large volumes rolled off in the latest expiration, fresh positioning over the next fortnight will reveal new directional bias. Opportunities may arise, but only once clearer momentum emerges on volume-supported moves or if macro indicators accelerate in any direction. Preparing to lean into market movement, rather than pre-empting it, will likely prove to be a less punishing approach.