Insights 
VT 
The AUDUSD fell below key support levels, including the 200-bar moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart, a rising trend line, and the previous week’s low. These breaks to new weekly lows were short-lived as the failure to hold sparked a recovery, with the price now testing the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart around 0.6490.
Despite managing to rise above the 100-bar MA, the upward momentum remains subdued. Should the price maintain its position above this point, it could approach the year’s highs once more. Failing to do so might lead to a decline toward the 200-hour MA and trend line targets.
Current Key Support Levels
Current key support levels include the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at approximately 0.6464, the trend line at 0.6458, and the day’s low at 0.6445. Resistance levels stand at the 100-bar MA around 0.6490 and an upper swing area between 0.6534 and 0.6553. Buyers appear to be in control following the failed attempts at lower levels, but the future direction depends on the response to the moving averages.
This analysis outlines a short-lived dip beneath some closely watched technical supports for the AUD/USD, including the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, a rising trend line, and last week’s low watermark. The fact that the price failed to stay under those breaking points suggests that there wasn’t strong conviction on the sell side. Once that downside failed to follow through, we saw buyers stepping in, resulting in a recovery phase bringing price back toward the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour timeframe.
That particular level—around 0.6490—has now taken on more weight. It has gone from being a reference point to a kind of temporary hinge where short-term direction will lean either way depending on what unfolds next. Getting above it, even marginally, has occurred. But so far, there’s been no strong follow-through. This tells us something. Momentum above this marker is still lacking, implying hesitancy from buyers at precisely the moment when they would need to commit.
What happened after the dip matters. The reaction after price touched down and bounced shows that buyers were willing to come back with some intent, but not with enough force to send price convincingly through upside barriers. That puts bulls under pressure now to push further or risk giving up near-term control again.
Potential Climb and Market Volatility
If the price turns back below this average, gravity may well tug it toward the next supports—the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart, the same trend line it dropped through earlier, and the recent intraday low. These are all layered quite closely together, within a 20-point range, and could attract attention from those short-term positioning for a retreat towards more comfortable footing.
At the other end of the rope lies a potential climb toward the 0.6534 to 0.6553 band. This upper zone previously capped upside momentum, acting as a zone where selling returned. If the current level holds and buying stiffens, that’s the next test. Failure to retake that territory in rapid fashion—within a couple of daily sessions—could sour sentiment further.
Now coming into view is a window where volatility might increase. With price vacillating near the moving averages, machines and short-term players will be especially alert to directional cues. Traders should be aware of those boundaries, keep risk lean near moving averages, and consider that responses to these precise technical markers might be swift and layered with false starts, similar to what’s already unfolded this week.
The action around these zones—resistance near 0.6490 and support stretching down toward 0.6445—could tell us more than momentum readings alone. Markets have shrugged off recent breaks quickly, which hints at big positioning not aligned toward either direction at the moment. Range behaviour has a higher chance here unless that changes. For now, it’s less about hunting breakouts and more about reacting to whether repeated levels start to lose their grip.
