Key Points

• Spot gold eases 0.1% to $3,386.79 ahead of the Fed’s rate guidance
• Ongoing Israel-Iran strikes keep a geopolitical floor under prices

Gold prices retreated slightly on Wednesday, with spot gold down 0.1% at $3,386.79 an ounce and U.S. gold futures easing 0.1% to $3,405.10 as of 0805 GMT. The market adopted a cautious tone ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy announcement later today, as traders refrained from large directional bets in anticipation of Chair Jerome Powell’s forward guidance.

Market consensus widely expects the Fed to hold rates steady at this meeting, but traders are positioning for any potential dovish hints that could set the stage for rate cuts later this year. The Federal Open Market Committee’s statement and Powell’s remarks will be closely scrutinised for any change in tone, especially after recent inflation readings showed mild deceleration.

Equity sentiment showed modest optimism, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.2% and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.3% in early trade, capping demand for the safe-haven metal.

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) has spent the last 36 hours in a tight, indecisive range, closing at 3384.35 after opening at 3390.47—reflecting a modest -0.18% dip. The 15-minute chart shows choppy, sideways price action with multiple failed attempts to break above the 3400 level and repeated rebounds off the 3366.22 support zone, confirming the current consolidation range between 3366 and 3400.

Picture: Gold holds steady above key 3366 support, as seen on the VT Markets app

From a technical standpoint, the MACD has been oscillating around the zero line, reflecting the lack of trend conviction. There’s been a series of alternating bullish and bearish histogram bars, and neither momentum nor volume has signaled a strong breakout attempt. The absence of a visible moving average (MA) overlay in this chart might limit further clarity, but the price action clearly shows lower highs and higher lows forming a potential wedge.

This consolidation reflects market hesitancy ahead of upcoming Fed speakers and U.S. macro data due later this week, including jobless claims and flash PMI. Gold typically moves in response to interest rate expectations, and with inflation data softening, markets are watching closely for any dovish shift that could reignite safe-haven demand.

Looking ahead, markets will take cues from the Fed’s tone on inflation and growth risks. Any acknowledgement of downside risks stemming from tariffs or global conflict could give gold renewed momentum. For now, gold remains in a holding pattern—stabilised by geopolitics, but hesitant under the shadow of monetary policy.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.