Silver prices are currently stabilising above the $36.00 level, with this figure acting as immediate support after a recent breakout in June. The ongoing geopolitical tension between Israel and Iran is influencing Silver’s safe-haven demand, while the US Dollar’s performance and Treasury yields play a role ahead of the FOMC decision.

Silver’s value has increased over 10% this month, yet it appears to be consolidating as it awaits new market catalysts. The US Dollar has weakened due to political instability, aiding Silver’s stability near $36.38 with a modest 0.2% gain since Friday.

The conflict between Israel and Iran has spurred demand for safe assets like Silver. Reports suggest Iran may resume nuclear talks with the US, which could limit Silver’s upside potential, though some Iranian officials have contested these claims.

Speculation of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut this year has increased Silver’s appeal, balancing fluctuating risk sentiment due to the Middle Eastern conflict. Silver trading near $36.38 follows a strong rally, with key resistance and support levels in sight as determined by recent highs and technical indicators.

Positioning in silver has turned more deliberate now that the price appears to be coiling just above the $36.00 handle. Buyers who had been aggressive during the June breakout are now showing signs of caution, allowing the metal to drift sideways as various macro factors continue to shape its outlook. The lingering geopolitical risk, particularly linked to Iran and Israel, has inflated the appeal of assets perceived as more secure. However, the appearance of diplomatic noise—talks of renewed engagement between Washington and Tehran—has introduced some friction to the previously one-directional narrative. While the initial reaction drove prices higher, any confirmation that tensions are easing could put a short-term cap on further upside.

From a volatility standpoint, silver has already moved over 10% in June, so it’s unsurprising to see a period of consolidation develop. The metal holding near $36.38 is reflective of that cooling momentum despite mild gains over the past few sessions. This subdued movement is tied in part to a softer greenback, which continues to drift under pressure from domestic uncertainty and expectations around the Fed’s future rate path. Every tick lower in the dollar seems to buy Silver more room to tread water at this level.

The bond market has also injected some two-way risk into the trade, with Treasury yields pulling back slightly, reinforcing the view that the Fed may have reached the end of its tightening phase. The renewed belief in a cut by the end of the year triggers a mechanical preference for non-yielding assets, especially if the central bank appears ready to respond to a wobbling economy. Such sentiment appears to be feeding into the bid we’ve seen in silver. Yet, there’s an inherent sensitivity in this market to rate cues, and the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee decision will likely play a directional role.

Technically, the ranges are tightening. There’s support just below at $36.00, which has now acted as a shelf multiple times during intra-day moves. Above, traders are focused on recent swing highs to gauge whether momentum can build again. The attention now shifts towards the reaction during U.S. economic data releases and any confirmation around interest rate expectations. Short-term flows are likely to remain in favour of metal exposure unless there’s a renewed wave of hawkish commentary from Powell or Fed officials, which would push Treasury yields up and dampen demand.

For strategy moving forward, we’ve taken note of the stabilisation phase and expect quieter price action ahead of policy signals. That means mean-reverting strategies or range-bound positioning may provide better risk-reward for technical traders, at least until there’s evidence of breakout potential re-emerging. Inflows will continue to be headline-sensitive, so any sharp developments in the Middle East or confirmation out of Iran could prompt quick repricing. Options premium remains elevated, suggesting that the implied volatility is being priced in, reflecting uncertainty rather than direction.

What we’re watching now is the way Silver behaves at established resistance. If it fails to reclaim recent highs with conviction, then a re-test of lower supports becomes more likely. On the other hand, any dovish pivot by the Fed—or further deterioration in geopolitical risks—would provide fuel for another leg higher. The alignment between softening yields and a weaker dollar gives bulls a hand for now, but positioning suggests we’ve moved into a more hesitant phase. Whether that translates into a broader reversal or just another pause in trend will depend on what comes out of Washington and Vienna in the coming sessions.