Insights 
VT 
Gold prices have returned to $3,400 following reports that Iran is open to continuing talks with the US about its nuclear programme. The metal is bolstered by the safe-haven appeal and the weakening of the US Dollar, with traders reassessing risk amidst these developments.
Meanwhile, profit-taking and geopolitical risks have pulled gold trading lower. The current XAU/USD value sits around $3,400, a level that has alternately served as support and resistance during trading hours.
Irans Efforts To Signal A Reduction
Iran’s efforts to signal a reduction in hostilities and resume talks have eased tensions. This has led to reduced demand for safe havens like gold and put downward pressure on oil prices, as seen by traders.
Gold’s safe-haven status and the fluctuations in US 10-year Treasury yields drive prices, though elevated profit-taking has limited further gains. As conflicts persist, especially between Israel and Iran, safe-haven demand underpins gold despite calls for de-escalation remaining unanswered.
Despite small setbacks, gold remains elevated amid Middle East tensions and expected Federal Reserve policy updates. The trade reflects an opportunity for strategic buying, while volatility may continue until more clarity on policies and geopolitical matters emerges, including the Fed’s interest rate decision pending on Wednesday.
Recent Movement In The Gold Market
This recent movement in the gold market reflects broader sentiment shifts more than immediate supply-demand changes. Prices returning to the $3,400 level suggest that markets are in a holding pattern—cautious but not reactionary. The reduction in hostilities between Iran and the US has removed some of the urgency from safe-haven buying. Still, the Middle East remains in focus, so we should not presume that this relative calm will persist beyond the week ahead.
Weakening in the US Dollar has helped gold partially recover recent losses. This is fairly typical, given the inverse relationship between the greenback and commodity prices quoted in dollars. That said, the strength of profit-taking we’ve seen might indicate that large funds are increasingly uncomfortable holding prolonged positions above current levels. If further attempts to retest higher levels fail, we could see sharper downside as these positions unwind.
The repeated testing of $3,400 as both support and resistance within sessions shows that conviction remains thin. This is common when uncertainty surrounding macro policy increases. Market participants are slowly edging into positioning, not rushing in. It reflects a broader theme we’ve observed: caution rather than confidence in directional moves across precious metals, even with traditional catalysts such as armed conflict in the Middle East still unresolved.
Yields on US 10-year Treasuries appear to be playing an outsized role in daily gold pricing. That’s nothing new, but the reaction seems more sensitive than usual, underlining how rate expectations are now just as impactful as geopolitics. That suggests pricing will be vulnerable to any change in tone from Powell this week, especially if policy guidance subtly shifts from the previously cautious optimism about inflation trends.
In this sort of environment, the approach we take should be more about timing than predicting direction. Let the data releases, especially from the Fed this Wednesday, add to or subtract from the current mood. Until then, higher volatility isn’t noise—it’s information. Unsettled market participants create better entry points for directional bets, particularly around resistance levels that keep failing or supports that keep holding.
Overall, there’s no indication yet of sustained conviction in either a prolonged gold rally or a deeper correction. That’s fine—markets in transition often lack commitment. In the short term, patience may offer better opportunities than momentum-chasing. Wait for clean breaks or repeated failures before leaning into leverage or increasing exposure.
