Insights 
VT 
The US Dollar may test 145.00 against the Japanese Yen, but the resistance at 145.50 is unlikely to be challenged. In the longer term, the US Dollar is expected to fluctuate between 143.00 and 145.50.
Last Friday, expectations of a further decline in the Dollar were proved wrong as it rebounded to 144.48. The momentum suggests a test of 145.00 is possible, yet the resistance level of 145.50 is unlikely to be reached. Support is noticeable at 144.00 and 143.50.
Dollar Recovery and Shift in Perspective
Previously, following a significant drop, the stance was that the Dollar was unlikely to recover and might trend towards 142.20. This perspective changed when the currency rose above 144.40, indicating the potential for a broader range between 143.00 and 145.50.
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The recent bounce in the US Dollar against the Yen, particularly the swift climb to 144.48 last week, came as a surprise to many who anticipated a descent towards the 142.00 region. This reversal caught a number of desks off guard, especially given that earlier weakness seemed to confirm downside pressure. Now, with the Dollar gaining pace again, the idea of a move up to the round number of 145.00 doesn’t appear as far-fetched as it did just over a week ago.
However, from our view, the area just above it, especially near 145.50, is likely to hold like it has previously. There’s been predictable resistance in that band in recent months—multiple tests have failed to convincingly push through. As a result, it’s reasonable to narrow the near-term focus towards a band between 143.00 and 145.50. Even though renewed upside momentum justifies short-term interest, the current picture still leans towards a broader consolidation.
Current Support and Resistance Levels
Support markers remain at 144.00 and slightly lower around 143.50. These levels are worth watching closely in the coming sessions. A break below either one might bring back the older thesis that had expected a drift down to 142.20. Should momentum slip, this downside scenario would begin to regain traction.
It’s apparent that what looked like a fading Dollar narrative has shifted, at least temporarily, largely influenced by recent price action rather than macroeconomic shifts. For those positioned in swing or short-term directional plays, that change has demanded flexibility. We have pushed expectations back into a wider zone rather than holding tight to formerly narrower levels, reflecting this unpredictability.
Although recent trading has favoured Dollar strength, one should not mistake this for unchecked upside. Resistance at higher ranges has persisted for a reason—it’s been tested and held. Positioning is now more reliant on price behaviour around 144.00 to 145.00. If support gives way, prior assumptions of weakness could reassert themselves quickly.
What happens next will likely depend on incoming data and sentiment. If consolidation holds but volatility stays low, we might see a longer phase of range-bound moves, where any push towards the top or bottom offers reaction points rather than breakouts. It would not be unusual to see a few failed tests as traders adjust risk in both directions.
At these levels, we prefer reactive participation, especially when price action aligns with known support or resistance thresholds. It’s more productive to fade moves extending sharply into those zones rather than chase.
