Insights 
VT 
Technical Analysis
Despite stronger-than-expected University of Michigan sentiment data, stocks have declined to new session lows, while yields have reached new session highs. U.S. bonds appear separated from the usual safe-haven trend often seen during geopolitical tensions.
The NASDAQ index is pressured, nearing its rising 100-hour moving average at 19,349.45. The index reached a low of 19,425.68, last trading at 19,431—down 231.2 points or 1.18% for the day.
The S&P index is still above its 100-hour moving average of 5,953.64. It touched a low of 5,983.83 today and is now at 5,986.81, down 0.96% for the session.
The USD initially rose due to geopolitical tensions but later dropped during the U.S. session. The EURUSD is trading at 1.1538, recovering from a session low of 1.1488, near its rising 100-hour moving average of 1.14775.
The USDJPY retraced from its high of 144.48, testing its 200-hour moving average at 144.048. Although market indicators don’t show alarm, major stock indices are retreating from recent highs, suggesting a technically normal decline. The University of Michigan sentiment data didn’t trigger a notable rebound, causing some concern.
Despite higher yields, they remain below last week’s levels: 4% for 2-year, 4.5% for 10-year, and 5% for 30-year benchmarks. Current market responses to conflict are not typical.
Market Sentiment
Broader unease may stem from inconsistent policy measures and engagement struggles. Although China reaffirmed previous agreements, issues with nations like Russia and Iran persist. The lack of new progress post-Saudi Arabia adds pressure, with looming deal deadlines prompting urgent calls for resolution.
What’s happening in this article is clear: despite an upbeat U.S. consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan—a figure that usually boosts confidence—markets are not behaving as one might predict under such conditions. Stocks are selling off, with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 both slipping lower. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have crept higher, contradicting the typical pattern where bonds rally and yields fall during uncertain global events. It’s an unusual response and suggests that traders are putting more weight on other forces at play, possibly stretching beyond sentiment or headline risk.
For those of us watching the larger picture, the slide in equities alongside rising bond yields suggests a rebalancing of sorts. It’s not panic, but rather a correction within an upward bias seen over recent weeks. The NASDAQ’s proximity to its 100-hour moving average means it is approaching a zone where technical buyers may begin sharpening their focus. Should that average be tested or broken cleanly, the follow-through may accelerate. That’s worth monitoring.
In parallel, the S&P’s relative strength, still holding above key levels for now, points to a less uniform reaction across sectors. Divergences like this can’t be ignored—they often precede market rotation or reallocation strategies, particularly when indexes cluster around short-term technical thresholds.
On the FX side, the dollar gave up early gains that had been linked to geopolitical jitters. Its decline as the U.S. trading session opened shows that the initial flight to safety has unwound somewhat—in part due to a lack of follow-through escalation and in part due to possible positioning fatigue. The euro’s pullback and bounce from near its 100-hour moving average tells us that there’s still notable buying interest at dips. That area now effectively becomes a battle line for directional bias.
The yen’s behaviour is even more interesting. After spiking higher during early conflict headlines, it’s settled near its longer-term trend anchor. The bounce from its 200-hour average illustrates that traders are paying close attention to momentum signals. Moves below that line could shift sentiment toward further yen strength in coming sessions. For now, the market is reacting to momentum exhaustion rather than a decisive change in broader flows.
The yield curve also introduces some unexpected turns. Although up today, Treasuries remain well under last week’s peaks. We’re not yet seeing the kind of repositioning that might hint at a larger unwind. What it does tell us is this: aggressive fiscal expectations tied to long-term policy commitments and persistent headline risk are being weighed differently. There appears to be a reluctance to chase yields too high in the current regime.
The absence of major risk-off movement, despite headline tensions in several parts of the world, confirms a sense of disconnection between past playbooks and current conditions. We’re seeing conflict without the coupling to haven assets that would normally dominate in a similar atmosphere. This likely reflects doubts around policy follow-through from major economies, alongside trade and treaty uncertainties that don’t yet provide clear catalysts.
With China reaffirming previous international agreements but not pushing forward, and ongoing impasses involving players like Russia and Iran, the current news flow lacks directional energy. The stalled negotiations posturing from Riyadh only adds weight to an already heavy air. Traders are reacting not to fear but to frustration, and that subtle difference makes a direct impact on strategy.
In short, we are seeing technical parameters drive near-term bias rather than emotion or raw data alone. Current price action suggests watching closely as markets flirt with levels that typically prompt programmatic flows. Decisions made here may shape positioning for the rest of the quarter.
