Insights 
VT 
The OPEC Secretary-General reports no recent changes in supply or market conditions, suggesting no need for additional measures.
Crude oil prices are experiencing an increase due to concerns over potential supply disruptions. The daily chart indicates a strong upward movement above the 200-day moving average of $68.47. This increase surpasses previous caps and reinforces a bullish trend.
Todays Trading Actions
Today’s trading actions showed a break above the 61.8% retracement of the 2025 trading range at about $70.96, further enhancing positive momentum. Crude currently trades at $72.91, a rise of $4.09 or 5.94% for the day, after peaking at $77.57, the highest since January 20. The annual peak is $80.73, reached on January 15.
Immediate support is identified at the April 2 high of $72.22. Falling below this level could target the 61.8% retracement at $70.96.
What the current data is telling us is rather direct—supply fundamentals have remained broadly steady according to Al Ghais, dismissing the need for added intervention from producers. Meanwhile, markets are behaving otherwise: price is rallying. The price movement now comfortably sits above a long-standing technical barrier—the 200-day average—which previously acted more like ceiling than floor. That line around $68.47 now operates as minor support in the backdrop of steadily climbing prices.
After closing above the 61.8% retracement of the broader 2025 range, the next short-term gauge we’re watching sits near $72.22. This area—an inflection point from early April—presents itself as little more than a potential resting spot. Should momentum falter there, eyes would move lower toward the $70.96 region again, which doubles as both a retracement level and a pivot on volume-driven sessions earlier this quarter.
Today’s intraday highs near $77.57 may not imply a breakout on their own, but they indicate the market’s appetite to test higher levels not seen since earlier in the year. Above that, the next reasonable upside check-in is at the January high of $80.73. If there’s a sustained attempt toward that threshold in the coming sessions, we could witness increased positioning shifts—particularly around contract roll periods, when volume rolls over and pressure is more visible.
Monitoring Delta Exposure
For those of us monitoring delta exposure, this price action suggests layered implications. Options skews are likely recalibrating with this rally, especially as calls move toward being in-the-money. When this happens, it tends to trigger gamma adjustments from market makers, which in turn adds to movement in the underlying. One should be ready to account for these effects rather than purely directional chart signals.
Carry costs in calendar spreads may also widen temporarily, as near-term contracts outpace deferred ones. This backwardation generally implies that markets are more concerned with immediate developments—whether they’re geopolitical, supply chain related, or even weather-based in transport zones.
Prices climbing while physical fundamentals remain unchanged tells us that expectations are doing the heavy lifting. When that disconnect appears, it makes sense to reassess short gamma exposure and position sizing, particularly during week-end or month-end expirations. We’ve seen instances before where thin liquidity exaggerated price swings.
On the implied volatility front, moves like today’s have likely spurred a short-term compression in skews for puts, especially at strikes a few dollars below spot. Traders keen to express near-term views will want to test these levels for premium efficiency before loading into outright positions or spreads, particularly going into high-volume sessions near inventory reports or macro data releases.
The next several sessions will include rebalancing flows, especially from index-linked exposures, and this could introduce higher noise versus signal on price charts. In periods like these, mechanical triggers—such as breach of support and resistance—tend to carry more weight than sentiment headlines.
We’ll continue monitoring positioning changes, particularly on rising open interest levels and their divergence from historical norms. These patterns usually appear a few sessions before the broader volatility expansion. Tail scenarios may become more compelling in cases where minor support levels break faster than they’ve built up. Prepare accordingly for whipsaw risk.
