Insights 
VT 
Technical Encouragement
The daily chart indicates that the May pullback found support near the 38.2% retracement level from the November 2024 low. This offers technical encouragement for those predicting continued price increases.
Although May and June highs remain unbroken, buyers are still in control. They retain the advantage, supporting the ongoing upward trend in gold prices.
So far, the analysis outlines a market where buyers are holding their ground. With gold nearing previous highs, the current move adds to the impression that momentum is still favouring the upside. The climb past $3,388 gives the metal a sturdier base, helped along by external pressures that, in the past, have typically drawn inflows into gold. The retracement from earlier in the year—specifically resting near the 38.2% level since November—is meaningful. It’s a level many specialists keep a close eye on for signs of demand returning.
Momentum Favours Higher Prices
The broader picture suggests traders have been willing to view dips as buying opportunities. As tensions continue to develop overseas, there’s a consistent theme of gold acting as a magnet when uncertainty rises. Layer that with a dollar that’s been slipping on a relative basis, and it’s no surprise bullish positions are being defended.
Powell’s recent commentary hinted at patience on rates, reinforcing the case for holding non-yielding assets. Because of this, we’ve seen a continued lean towards gold exposure, particularly among hedged portfolios. That, combined with the past few weeks of economic data that hasn’t surprised in a meaningful way either direction, has allowed technicals to play a more noticeable role.
The current range between the intraday peak of $3,403 and the April high of $3,500 is worth watching. If the price establishes support closer to $3,400, it increases the chance of a further bid higher. We should also note that past attempts near the May high stalled without much follow-through, meaning intraday levels will matter more in gauging near-term strength.
From a derivatives perspective, open interest has been edging upward across futures and options. That often pairs with conviction. Price action around $3,437—the May high—holds weight not just because it’s a previous ceiling, but because it coincides with an acceleration point. If that level breaks convincingly, implied volatility is likely to spike, and short-dated contracts will feel it first.
What this tells us is that, short of a sharp reversal in either macro headlines or policy guidance, directional setups favour upward continuation. For intraday trades, watching how price behaves after the US open, particularly around $3,403 and $3,437, could provide early signals. If gold can close above both levels with any consistency, momentum-based strategies would likely begin adding more weight.
Technicians will be focused on volume accompanying any move through those resistance points. Low-volume breaks are treated as suspect. But with volume in futures picking up this week and spreads firming against other metals, there’s some confirmation forming from the broader commodities space, too.
It’s also worth noting that Skilling and Martin spoke recently about dealer positioning shifting towards long gamma. If that continues through the week, price could start behaving more erratically near resistance, bouncing more sharply as dealers hedge. That environment won’t favour passive exposure; it requires tighter risk frameworks and faster responses to daily movement.
If the dollar begins consolidating above its recent lows, gold might meet temporary resistance. But unless real yields move substantially higher, it’s unlikely to depress enthusiasm for gold, especially among overseas accounts seeking currency hedges.
For now, momentum favours those looking higher, and secondary support rests back at the $3,354 level. That’s near the 20-day average — a favourite of short-term trend followers. Momentum-driven systems will probably continue pressing positions until at least one of the major highs gives way.
We’re seeing this setup reflected across multiple time horizons, with shorter-dated implieds firming and longer-dated contracts staying relatively relaxed. That suggests traders are expecting movement, but not disorder. That’s an environment where directional bets can persist without too much risk of sudden, chaotic reversals — as long as setups are respected.
It makes sense to stay tactical, rotating exposure around range edges while using the volume profile and key levels as references. Anchoring risk to visible technicals means more resilience if the price fails to push through resistance cleanly.
Market structure continues to support a framework of gradually increasing exposure, provided alerts are in place for any reversal through the $3,354–$3,340 zone. Anything beneath that starts to shift the narrative — but for now, that floor is intact.
