Insights 
VT 
A quieter week is ahead following the NFP release, with Monday being a public holiday in many European countries for Whit Monday.
On Tuesday, Australia will reveal the Westpac consumer sentiment index, while the UK will publish data on the average earnings index 3m/y, claimant count change, and unemployment rate.
Focus On Us Inflation Data
Wednesday focuses on U.S. inflation data, and on Thursday, the UK will report its monthly GDP m/m. The U.S. will present the PPI m/m alongside weekly unemployment claims.
Friday sees the release of the preliminary University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and UoM inflation expectations.
Australia’s previous Westpac consumer sentiment increased by 2.2%. Recent developments include the RBA’s 25 bps rate cut and weaker-than-expected Q1 national accounts, suggesting economic headwinds.
In the UK, the average earnings index 3m/y is expected at 5.3%. The claimant count change is anticipated at 9.5K, with the unemployment rate at 4.6%.
For the U.S., the core CPI m/m is projected at 0.3%, contrasting with the prior 0.2%. The CPI y/y is expected to climb from 2.3% to 2.5%.
The data offers insights into the impact of tariffs on consumer prices, with particular focus on core goods categories.
Us Core Ppi And Jobless Claims
U.S. core PPI m/m is estimated at 0.3%, with the headline PPI m/m at 0.2%. The previous decline in headline PPI suggested obscured inflationary pressures from tariffs.
Looking ahead, this week’s lighter economic calendar offers some clarity for those watching rates and inflation trends, especially after last week’s non-farm payrolls. With many European nations off on Monday for Whit Monday, we can expect muted volumes early in the week, likely translating into choppier, less directional trade before macro catalysts begin to filter in from Tuesday.
Australia’s consumer sentiment readings out Tuesday will give a chance to assess the public’s appetite for spending amidst slowing growth. After a 2.2% lift last month, the response to slowing Q1 data and the Reserve Bank’s recent cut by a quarter-point will be in close focus. This is less about absolute numbers and more about shifts in trend. A negative print after last month’s improvement would echo fading confidence and support a dovish tilt from the RBA. Should the figure deteriorate past expectations, watch for yield compression on Aussie front-end rates.
UK labour data on Tuesday will likely set the tone for sterling and front-end gilt pricing in the near term. With earnings projected at 5.3% and unemployment sitting at 4.6%, there’s encouragement here for hawks. However, if real pay continues to outpace inflation, the Bank of England’s hiking cycle may remain under question. Should claimant numbers increase more than the stated 9,500 forecast, it might reinforce the idea that the job market is loosening just enough to prevent further tightening. In this case, expectations around future rate hikes could waver further, particularly if GDP on Thursday underdelivers.
Wednesday’s American CPI results stand out. With a projected move to 0.3% m/m for core inflation—and a year-on-year expectation of 2.5%—we are starting to see renewed questions emerge around stickiness in core prices. Last month’s print was 0.2%, so this small shift will be keenly felt. The market will be particularly sensitive to categories traditionally impacted by tariffs, such as apparel and household durables. We should not expect broad disinflationary trends just yet, especially with geopolitical risks influencing supply chains. As a collective, we’ll be watching for not just the print itself, but for how sticky these inputs appear—especially if services inflation re-accelerates.
Thursday’s dual read: US PPI and weekly jobless claims, should further colour the inflation picture. Core PPI at 0.3% would mirror CPI momentum—if both confirm upside risk, pricing for Fed cuts may be pushed further out. Previously, a decline in headline PPI had many assuming underlying inflation was soft, but revised pricing and freight costs suggest that assumption may be stale. A print in-line with or above expectations will likely see support for longer-end Treasury yields, at least tactically.
Friday rounds off with early reads from the University of Michigan, where both sentiment and inflation expectations are due. These soft indicators increasingly matter as hard data shows decelerating momentum. Long-run inflation expectations have edged higher in recent quarters. Should that trajectory continue, markets will have to reconsider how anchored expectations really are. A surprise uptick wouldn’t only support the case for persistence in core inflation—it could reawaken speculation about stagflation risk.
Traders leaning on options and volatility product structures should remain nimble. Complacency in macro volatility could be punished quickly if any of these indicators skew consensus. As we prepare for these releases, particularly the inflation data, a reactive rather than anticipatory stance may prove more constructive. We will be tracking expectations against actual prints to gauge implied repricing across short-term rate curves. Holding a bias seems increasingly risky across all regions unless positioning is tight.
