Insights 
VT 
Gold prices have fallen for the third consecutive day, now sitting at $3298, a decrease of $11 following an initial rise of $8. This decline coincides with ongoing US-China trade discussions, confirmed by announcements made by US officials.
The US and China trade teams are scheduled to meet in London this week for further discussions. Additionally, the Group of Seven summit is set to occur from June 15-17 in Canada, which may prompt announcements related to trade deals. A potential agreement with Canada is also anticipated within the week.
Survey Results On Gold Price Predictions
A recent survey by Kitco revealed a nearly even split between those predicting a rise (bulls) and a decline (bears) in gold prices. Despite hopes that Asian buyers would counteract the selling pressure from the US, this has not materialised so far today.
As price action continues to drift lower, what began as a modest daily decline has now extended into a broader loss streak. This third day in the red brings gold to $3,298, with sellers gaining momentum despite a brief early session bounce. That earlier uptick of $8 was quickly erased by renewed downward pressure. So far, buying interest from Asia, expected to mop up some of the supply, has failed to materialise, leaving price support fragile.
The reason behind this cautious tone lies largely with the ongoing discussions between Washington and Beijing. The fresh confirmation of meetings scheduled in London adds a layer of anticipation, but until progress is signalled definitively, that uncertainty encourages broad risk-on positioning elsewhere—diverting attention from gold. The outlook for the G7 in Canada also looms large on calendars. Although gold usually gains support from geopolitical tension, current price behaviour indicates more focus on tangible agreements than conjecture, particularly regarding an expected deal with Canada.
Hesitation among market participants is visible in the Kitco data—sentiment nearly splits follower groups down the middle. That kind of indecision often fosters range-bound trading, but in this case, continued softness shows bears asserting more force than bulls. The absence of follow-through from Asian buyers deflates earlier expectations. The narrative of East absorbing sell-side flows from the West hasn’t played out meaningfully yet.
Observations On Derivatives Markets
Derivatives markets, where compression depends on shifts in volatility and clear directional follow-through, now face thinner support zones and exposed downside levels. When we positioned for this week, open delta levels surrounding $3,300 made sense for neutral skew, but further losses could shift gamma sensitivity lower. Our own sentiment leans cautiously defensive. When the bid fails to stabilise before a political summit, it’s often a sign not to lean into unreliable support.
Volatility remains compressed, but with this kind of price bleeding and week-end macro risk in tow, it’s unlikely to stay settled. Trade desks may begin adjusting their ranges if the London meeting delivers any concrete set-points, but with volumes light into the summer period, nobody is forcing positions.
As price grinds through soft floors, we have taken note of open interest realignments on monthly expiries. Certain strikes that previously captured safe-haven flows are shedding exposure faster than normal, suggesting positioning bias may be shifting. This isn’t a full unwind, but it reflects some discomfort at holding directional exposure ahead of scheduled headline risk.
We’ll continue watching bid formation for signs of re-entry, but until we see buyers reliably support these lower levels, it remains more appropriate to think defensively with respect to strikes and gamma. Broader swings may resume when headlines break later this week, but the weight of current order flow leans heavier towards controlled de-risking than opportunistic inflows.
