Crude oil prices have maintained their stability in the face of Saudi Arabia’s push for more rapid production increases. Saudi Arabia is advocating for OPEC+ to enhance oil production speed to regain market share, stepping away from a focus on price support.

While this development initially influenced the market, its effect diminished quickly, indicating that it was already anticipated by traders. The focus is shifting toward oil demand, with prospects of improvement anticipated in the upcoming months.

Technical Analysis Of Wti Crude Oil

Technical analysis reveals that WTI crude oil has been trading between the 60.00 support level and 64.00 resistance level for about a month. Market activity suggests continuation within this range until a breakout occurs, with a potential upside breakout targeting the 72.00 level.

A closer look at the 1-hour chart shows a narrower trading range between 62.18 support and 64.00 resistance. Traders are likely to uphold this pattern until a breakout is confirmed.

This piece highlights a market that’s currently digesting supply-side decisions while beginning to weigh demand forecasts more heavily. In short, Saudi Arabia is moving away from curbing output to prop prices up and instead supporting faster production growth. That kind of directional shift naturally sends ripples through expectations, but judging by how muted the market response was, those steps appear to have been largely priced in. Those operating in shorter-term strategy frameworks would recognise that when news fails to deliver strong moves, it’s often because positioning had already factored it in.

In trading terms, we’re seeing a market sitting comfortably in its range, both on the broader daily time frame and more immediate intraday levels. The upper edge of 64.00 is capping gains for now, with buyers reluctant to push beyond that until there’s a definitive catalyst. Meanwhile, immediate downside has steadied around 62.18, offering structure and opportunities for mean reversion trades. What’s visible in price behaviour is consistent with indecision rather than bearish conviction.

Future Market Considerations

Larger directional moves—in either direction—would require volume stepping up and a technical break beyond current boundaries. If we do see an upside move beyond 64.00 sustained into higher closes, especially on momentum confirmation, then 72.00 becomes a logical extension target. That upper level is based not just on measured move projections but also on multiple historical interaction zones where sellers previously emerged.

We need to be particularly aware of whether the market is responding more to supply factors or transitioning into demand-focused assessments. If consumption expectations begin to show reliable upward adjustments—particularly in forward-looking metrics like mobility data or industrial drawdowns—the range could break earlier than many expect.

Shorter windows, such as 1-hour charts, are behaving in a textbook fashion, offering consistent rhythm within a tighter boundary. Until one of those edges gives way with volume support, planning around repeated bounce-and-fade structures remains the most balanced approach. The longer the consolidation continues, though, the more energy builds up ahead of the eventual directional release.

We are watching for any broadening of volume spikes at the extremes, particularly around 64.00, which would point to institutional footprints signalling short-term trend intent. If that buying is sustained into US open sessions, the chances of a range expansion to the upside improve materially. The weeks ahead are not likely to bring complacency. There’s too much sitting just beneath the surface: supply changes, consumption shifts, technical thresholds.

It’s the alignment of these — and their timing — that will determine which traders remain on the right side of movement.

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