Insights 
VT 
Today’s notable forex expiration is at the 1.1350 level for EUR/USD, with large expiries expected in coming days. This could provide some support for price movement, especially with the 100 and 200-hour moving averages nearby at 1.1330-35.
The dollar is currently weaker as markets process recent trade developments. Trump’s tariffs have been temporarily reinstated, prompting some negative sentiment towards ongoing China trade discussions.
Eur Usd Chart Levels
The earlier chart level most traders are watching is 1.1350 on the EUR/USD pair, a point where several options are due to expire today. That figure does not stand alone—what really makes it matter is its close proximity to the 100 and 200-hour moving averages, which currently sit just beneath that at around 1.1330 to 1.1335. The alignment of technical factors and expiry volumes tends to turn price movement slightly more responsive in those areas, often attracting scalpers and those positioning around key expiries.
The greenback has taken a step back, largely due to how markets are digesting global trade movements of late. In particular, tariff measures have returned in part, stirring unease among investors over where trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing might head next. Traders read this shift as a potential drag on US economic activity, prompting a pullback in dollar demand, particularly in pairs sensitive to broader risk themes.
Tactical Market Approach
From here, we are approaching the market from a tactical angle that accounts for both options impact and short-term sentiment. With a round of expiry levels concentrated around current spot, and additional ones emerging later in the week, even minor shifts in market tone could increase volatility. What we’ve seen historically is that when price interacts with dense option clusters near moving averages, it often results in consolidation or brief rejections on either side, which then quickly fade as the expiry passes.
Powell’s recent comments did little to sway the broader tone, and the data calendar is light in the near term. That lowers the barrier for headlines or technical structures to guide the near-term flow. When liquidity thins, these expiries often carry more weight than usual.
Thus, directional positioning should respect price sensitivity around the levels already discussed. Overextending a position out of sync with expiry-driven adjustments will likely prove inefficient through the week. Traders we spoke to are already adjusting order placement slightly earlier than usual, accounting for strike gravity exerting pressure into the London and New York overlaps.
Finally, flows remain mostly event-driven and short-dated. We’re leaning on the view that any retests of noted areas will be met with some degree of hedging interest, before broader positioning resumes its course post-expiry.
