AutoZone, Inc. will announce its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on 27 May. The expected earnings per share (EPS) is $36.78, with revenues projected at $4.4 billion. In the past 30 days, expected earnings for the quarter have decreased by 10 cents. This suggests a 0.25% increase from the same quarter last year.

AutoZone’s anticipated quarterly revenues indicate a 3.95% increase from the previous year. The company has missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average shortfall of 3.23%. In the second quarter of fiscal 2025, its adjusted EPS was $28.29, falling short of an estimated $29.16, and lower than the $28.89 from the previous year. Net sales were slightly below estimates but rose 2.4% year over year.

AutoZone has recorded increasing sales for 35 years, with fiscal 2024 revenues up 5.7% to $18.5 billion. In fiscal 2025, same-store growth is anticipated at 1.3% for the third quarter. The expansion of mega hubs with 111 locations and plans for at least 19 more by the fiscal year’s end continues. AutoZone also plans to open around 100 international stores in fiscal 2025.

Analysts have brought expectations down slightly over the past month, trimming the earnings estimate by 10 cents. That kind of revision, albeit small, often reflects fresh data from the sector or updated views on operational margins. It’s not a sharp cut, but it does hint at cautious sentiment, especially following erratic results in previous quarters. The earnings target implies only a tiny rise from the same quarter last year, suggesting the firm is expected to maintain pace rather than break new ground.

Sales growth is tracking above last year’s level, which should provide a cushion. A year-over-year revenue gain nearing 4% does offer a bit of stability in outlook, though the inability to consistently beat expectations makes the upcoming release more of a risk event. We remember the prior quarter’s shortfall – both versus forecast and prior-year performance – and while net sales did improve modestly, the margin compression or rising overheads may persist as pressure points.

That the company has managed 35 straight years of sales increases tells us something important: it’s not a flash-in-the-pan story. Still, historical strength won’t always offset short-term challenges. When they last reported, revenues came in a touch under consensus yet managed to edge higher year over year, reinforcing that top-line growth is present, even if earnings haven’t kept up proportionally.

The store expansion strategy adds another layer to consider. With over 100 mega hubs already operating and more planned before the fiscal year wraps up, one cannot ignore the cost drag it might have on near-term results. Same-store sales projections seem modest, growing just above 1% for Q3. That figure, in isolation, would not trigger strong reactions, but it’s likely being weighed against rising capital expenditures and overseas ambitions. The plan to add roughly 100 new international outlets makes sense strategically, though the upfront financial commitment could easily stretch cash flows.

Operational execution, particularly around inventory management and cost containment, becomes more important now. It might be wise to avoid over-reading the long-term store data and instead stay closer to updates about staffing, supply consistency, or margin-related guidance. The pattern of falling just short on earnings spells opportunity for those positioned with a view on volatility.

Given the historical unpredictability around earnings releases, this date presents potential for short-duration trades around the result. Given the company has missed estimates in 3 of the past 4 quarters, pricing around implied volatility may create setups where spreads or straddles make more sense than outright direction. A 3.23% average shortfall across those quarters is not negligible and tends to shape sentiment in the short term.

Price movement around the announcement may also be influenced disproportionately by forward commentary—especially any revision to expense forecasts or updates on how the international rollout is progressing. With these moving parts, it’s clear that the third-quarter figures won’t exist in a vacuum.

We are likely to focus less on headline EPS and more on store-level metrics and forecast adjustments. So, thorough attention should be paid to any shift in the same-store growth trajectory, margin stability, or commentary around expansion plans. These will shape expectations, not just for Q4 but potentially beyond the fiscal year.