Continuing jobless claims in the United States reached 1.903 million in the week ending May 9, surpassing the forecast of 1.89 million. Despite this uptick, the data reflects broader economic conditions that stakeholders are closely monitoring.

EUR/USD remains under pressure, staying below the 1.1300 support level. A rebound in the US Dollar, driven by strong business activity figures, has contributed to the currency pair’s challenges.

Gbpusd Bullish Trend

GBP/USD has maintained a bullish trend, trading above 1.3400. Buoyant values from flash UK PMIs have supported the British Pound, enabling it to sustain daily gains.

Gold has stabilized around the $3,300 mark per troy ounce, benefiting from a firm showing of the US Dollar. Nonetheless, a cautious market sentiment is limiting potential declines in gold prices.

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, trading above $110,000, as enthusiasts celebrated Bitcoin Pizza Day. Despite retail buying optimism, institutional parties remain cautious due to macroeconomic risks and fiscal uncertainties.

Economic Data Overview

This data offers a snapshot of what the economic week has held and how markets have taken their cues in response. The rise in US continuing jobless claims above projections points to a cooling in the labour market. While not dramatic, the higher number suggests employers may be growing more cautious, particularly within certain sectors. From our perspective, it’s reasonable to view the subtle increase as a soft signal—companies aren’t rushing to rehire, and some sectors are showing early signs of strain tied to higher interest rates and tightening credit conditions.

For those trading contracts tied to employment indicators, the response from bond yields and rate-sensitive assets suggests there’s sensitivity around any upside surprises in weekly data. There’s no need to overreact, but it’s also not a number to ignore. If these claims keep drifting higher over the next few weeks, particularly when aligned with Friday payroll figures, one can anticipate stronger reactions not only in currencies but across short-maturity Treasury futures as well.

Looking at currencies, the Euro struggled under pressure as EUR/USD slipped further below 1.1300. What’s driving the pair is quite mechanical: strength from the dollar following upbeat US business activity prints, as seen in recent ISM services and manufacturing surveys. The response in the FX markets leaned on the assumption that the Federal Reserve might delay any rate relief, effectively firming up support for the dollar on short-term charts. Any rally attempt in this currency pair needs to account for that — traders in the options market may see a case for limited upside while this rate narrative holds.

Sterling, by contrast, has been more resilient. After benefitting from strong domestic Purchasing Managers’ Index figures, GBP/USD has edged higher, holding above 1.3400. PMI components reflected improving output alongside a rebound in new orders, which implies firmer near-term growth conditions for the UK economy. That said, it’s not just the headline numbers; it’s also that inflationary components within the services PMIs showed moderation, making the Bank of England’s job slightly easier. Those running long positions in sterling futures should remain alert for further data surprises, particularly retail sales and inflation prints, as these will affect the forward rate curve and expectations about monetary easing paths.

Gold has found a comfort zone around $3,300 per ounce. While a steady dollar would typically weigh more directly on bullion, the price has instead found footing. This tells us that traders are balancing known macro risks with liquidity flows into safe-haven assets. Interestingly, volumes in gold ETF inflows were modestly up midweek, hinting at guarded optimism. In the derivative space, we’ve seen a slight uptick in short-dated call options, suggesting positioning for modest upside but with protection intact. Futures rollovers into the next quarter are likely to stay close to the current range barring new market shocks.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, continued its upward trajectory, climbing past the $110,000 mark. This move coincided with Bitcoin Pizza Day, though the celebration shouldn’t detract from underlying reasons. Retail participation was strong, but the caution from large funds has become more apparent. They’re less interested in short bursts of optimism and more focused on potential headwinds. Those include the approaching regulatory deadlines in the US, alongside discussions around fiscal conditions. Open interest in long-dated Bitcoin futures has grown, but the premium to spot remains thin — a signal that enthusiasm is tempered by policy ambiguity. We’ve noticed that spread strategies are increasingly being built around breakouts and quick retracements, so it’s fair to assume advanced positioning is more tactical than conviction-driven at this stage.

Taken together, these price levels and directional stances provide concrete reference points. We continue to monitor volatility skew across asset class derivatives, especially in the FX and crypto options space, as they offer valuable clues on where the next strong directional bets are taking shape.

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