United States initial jobless claims were recorded at 227,000, lower than the anticipated 230,000 for the week ending 16 May. This data point reflects a minor decrease compared to the expected figures in the labour market.

The EUR/USD pair continues to be under pressure, trading below the 1.1300 level. This movement aligns with a recovery in the US Dollar, influenced by robust business activity indicators in the US.

Gbp Usd Support From Pmi Data

GBP/USD maintains its positive trajectory, remaining above the 1.3400 mark. Positive results from the UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) support this trend, aiding its sustained daily gains.

Gold is experiencing a consolidative phase around the $3,300 per troy ounce level. This stability is impacted by the strong performance of the US Dollar, while cautious market sentiment restricts further declines.

Bitcoin marked Bitcoin Pizza Day with a new milestone, reaching an unprecedented high. The cryptocurrency surpassed $110,000, entering a new phase of price exploration.

Retail traders are showing increased optimism, whereas institutions proceed with caution due to ongoing macro and earnings concerns. Elevated uncertainty in policy and fiscal areas persists, influenced by trade tensions and US debt fears.

Initial jobless claims falling to 227,000—albeit only slightly below consensus—echo a labour market that remains fairly resilient, even if not particularly tight by historical standards. In these instances, even marginal moves can carry weight, especially when they challenge short-term expectations. From our view, this can be interpreted as mildly supportive for the Dollar, and market reaction seems to reflect as much. Not groundbreaking, but enough to confirm that lay-off activity isn’t accelerating—a detail that taper bets are keeping a sharp eye on.

With the US Dollar firming on the back of healthier domestic data, EUR/USD appears increasingly unable to sustain above near-term resistance zones. Trading below 1.1300 pulls it further away from the spring highs, suggesting that attempts to reclaim those levels lack momentum under current conditions. The currency pair remains sensitive to widening transatlantic output gaps, as well as diverging medium-term rate expectations. For positioning, there’s very little enthusiasm behind the euro’s latest push higher—momentum faded quickly, and that alone should raise some eyebrows when plotting out path-dependency scenarios.

Sterling, on the other hand, has managed to hold its footing. Continued strength above 1.3400 against the Dollar contrasts with its European counterpart. Much of that has to do with earlier-than-expected upward revisions in UK PMIs; in simpler terms, growth in services hasn’t budged, and that’s keeping rate expectations steady. However, it would be premature to draw out major directional calls surrounding inflation targeting. The short-term rhythm remains constructive here, though one should still step carefully—there’s plenty riding on inflation prints and central bank rhetoric due later this month.

Gold Consolidation With Dollar Strength

Gold is sitting in a relatively quiet patch, consolidating around $3,300 per ounce. Notably, it’s not tumbling despite the upward bias in the Dollar, suggesting there’s some deeper holding interest that guards support levels rather effectively. The lack of volatility is striking more than anything, as it runs counter to the broader macro chop. In quiet conditions like this, implied volatility premiums could begin to look overpriced—though fading directional breakouts is not without its hazards. Staying delta-neutral or shifting to moderation strategies might offer a cleaner way to approach.

Bitcoin’s breakout above $110,000 came on an anniversary date that marks its early transactional history. More importantly, it advances into pure price discovery territory, where technical barriers carry less influence and algorithmic flows can become the prevailing driver. The sheer level itself implies some behavioural tailwinds that few other assets currently exhibit. There may now be a pivot toward institutional adaptation, though hesitation continues due to fluctuating regulatory outlooks. What’s compelling isn’t just the level, but the absence of immediate profit-taking, suggesting conviction entering from buyers rather than opportunists.

Meanwhile, the divergence in confidence across market participants has grown more visible in recent sessions. Retail sentiment points upward, with frequent positioning in risk-exposed corners. That doesn’t necessarily imply they are wrong, but institutional presence has been withdrawn, perhaps even defensive. Macro sensitivity, particularly regarding fiscal policy developments and tariffs, is fuelling this caution. These themes aren’t going away next week, and they are more than just background noise. They’re baked into risk premiums already and require monitoring for positioning pivots.

For now, dislocations remain scattered but measurable. Liquidity hasn’t dried up, yet thinner price depth in selected derivatives markets suggests that larger players are still holding off from placing size. Timing attendance to major economic releases and cross-asset flows will be necessary if one is to step in ahead of volatility. Options implieds remain somewhat elevated, so picking cheaper expressions—riding gamma where possible—could yield better cost efficiency. Not every bounce deserves chasing, and not every dip is a bargain.

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