Insights 
VT 
The USD/JPY exchange rate continued to decline, reaching 143.74. Analysts noted fading bullish momentum and a drop in RSI, predicting support levels at 142.30 and 141.80, with resistance between 144.40/50 and 146.
They maintained a short position in USD/JPY, entered at 148, aiming for 141, with a stop loss at 151. These observations involve risks and are not recommendations to buy or sell assets.
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At its current level, the dollar-yen pair sits considerably lower than previous weeks, drifting toward our discussed support regions of 142.30 and 141.80. The rapid loss of bullish traction, underscored by a declining RSI, has been a telling sign of weakening upside momentum. With price now testing the waters near the 143 zone, pressure remains broad-based, especially as yields have tempered and risk sentiment shifts gradually.
Resistance levels marked around the 144.40–146.00 range have proven resilient, capping mild recovery attempts. As long as price action stays beneath this ceiling, rallies are likely to be met with renewed selling rather than fresh demand. Should price close firmly under 142.30, eyes may begin turning to the psychological target at 141, which coincides with medium-term strategic objectives still in play.
The position we hold from 148 continues to run with an unchanged target of 141. Although the market has retraced considerably since entry, the stop remains positioned at 151, allowing for short-term volatility without prematurely invalidating the broader thesis. Downward pressure may persist, as both speculative flows and fundamental indicators appear aligned—at least for now.
Market Volatility and Strategy
Importantly, this setup doesn’t benefit from complacency. While momentum appears to support a downward bias, abrupt reversals driven by policy shifts or macro data remain a persistent risk. The Bank of Japan’s yield-curve stance and U.S. economic prints continue to be variables which could inject volatility—especially around policy meetings or inflation releases.
It’s worth noting how subdued RSI readings reinforce the notion of mild oversold conditions developing. This doesn’t suggest reversal, but it does warn of the potential for consolidation or erratic bounce attempts, particularly during periods of thinner liquidity like during the Asia-Pacific crossover.
As we navigate the next sessions, it’s vital to track reaction levels near 142.30. A clean breach would not only validate the measured target near 141 but may open additional downside extensions, possibly into year-to-date lows. Should a bounce occur, initial rejections near 144.50 would be expected, barring any fundamental changes.
From our position, it’s a time to watch with attention but avoid over-adjusting. Premature tightening of the stop would risk getting caught in short-lived corrections. Conversely, letting price develop toward the intended take-profit level keeps alignment with the broader signal observed during the initial breakdown past 145. Traders should have patience here—price can grind rather than drop cleanly.
As ever, position sizing is key. We’re seeing range compression begin to taper off, which could mean upcoming directional moves won’t be as neat as previous sessions. While structure still supports the downside case, preparation for reactive price action instead of linear moves remains essential.
This market continues to reflect a combination of technical fatigue and macro repositioning—not easily separable, but visible nonetheless in how price respects longer-term bands and momentum fades into resistance.
