The EUR may climb above 1.1290, though reaching 1.1320 seems improbable given current momentum. Analysts suggest a decisive break above 1.1290 is needed for any extended rise, with losses below 1.1200 diminishing upward potential.

On Monday, the EUR reached 1.1288 before falling back. It later hit a high of 1.1285 during the late NY session, closing at 1.1282, a 0.36% increase. While there might be a rise above 1.1290 soon, reaching 1.1320 seems unlikely. Support levels have shifted to 1.1260 and 1.1235.

In the past two days, the momentum rise to 1.1288 suggested a gain in upward force. Analysts prefer seeing a daily close above 1.1290 for potential further advances to 1.1350. Conversely, dropping below 1.1200 would imply reduced upward potential.

Monday’s session showed the euro attempting to build on recent gains, briefly touching 1.1288 before losing direction and slipping back, ultimately finishing only slightly lower from the earlier high. Despite closing in positive territory – up a modest 0.36% – the pair struggled to clear 1.1290 cleanly, which analysts have flagged repeatedly as a meaningful trigger for any further ascent.

Short-term support has now edged higher to 1.1260 and 1.1235, which we view as indicative of a market warming up to the idea of further strength – if price stability holds. However, without a daily close above that 1.1290 marker, upward progress remains in question. That ceiling, tentatively approached yet not convincingly breached, sets a condition – not a guarantee – for a potential advance to 1.1350 in the medium term.

So, what does this tell us? For one, price action is moving higher, but that move is being met with resistance. Not only technical resistance at a price level, but hesitancy. Without fresh catalysts or sustained demand, there’s not much fuel to push further just yet. If the pair starts slipping below 1.1200, as flagged by the desks, it would suggest that whatever bullish momentum built up over the past week has run its course.

What we’ve seen over the last two days is an attempt to chart a higher path, yet each move near the upper bounds is being capped. Should 1.1290 give way and close firmly above it, we would likely position more confidently towards 1.1350, using dips as opportunities. Until that happens though, we stay nimble and watch for whether the support levels hold – especially 1.1235. We’d expect any move under there to gather pace and start drawing attention back to 1.1200.

There is no need to anticipate a runaway trend at this stage. Instead, the better approach lies in reacting to key levels and waiting for confirmation. What Müller and the others are watching closely now isn’t so much position data or speculative overhang – it’s daily closing momentum. A solid finish above a previous barrier changes the story.

The idea here is to let the market do the talking. We’re in a familiar range, but that can shift quickly. If we see congestion continue and no attempt to carry on above 1.1285, we would expect some grind lower. A fading rally could signal players unravelling bullish positions, triggering intraday retracements that shouldn’t surprise anyone watching the tape.

Ultimately, we’re navigating a fairly narrow band, but one where price sensitivity is high. A breach either side – especially accompanied by volume – tells us which camp takes control. Until then, we lean towards tactical trades around the levels now in play, staying mindful that any break without confirmation can easily reverse.