Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- NZD/USD rises to $0.59476 as US dollar falters.
- New Zealand swings to a $1.43B trade surplus in April, driven by 25% export growth.
- RBNZ seen near end of easing cycle; investors eye Thursday’s budget for fiscal clues.
The New Zealand dollar firmed to around $0.594 on Wednesday, supported by a pullback in the US dollar and a wave of optimism following a stronger-than-expected April trade report. The Kiwi jumped as much as 0.5% intraday, brushing against short-term resistance levels around 0.5948, with upside momentum underpinned by fundamental and technical drivers.
The latest trade data delivered a sharp upside surprise. New Zealand posted a monthly surplus of NZ$1.43 billion—its strongest April result in years—reversing a NZ$0.01 billion deficit in the same period last year. Exports surged 25% year-on-year, led by agricultural and forestry shipments, while imports rose only 1.8%.
This trade turnaround has prompted some traders to revisit their Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate expectations. While a 25bps cut is still widely priced in for next week, the market is no longer convinced that deep easing will follow. The year-end terminal rate is now seen around 2.83%, higher than previous forecasts that hovered closer to 2.5%.
Meanwhile, the US dollar’s recent slump, driven by weaker economic indicators and mounting debt concerns following the Moody’s downgrade, has created tailwinds for the NZD. Traders are increasingly skeptical of the Federal Reserve’s ability to hold rates higher for longer as domestic headwinds gather.
Technical Analysis
NZD/USD has pushed higher in the latest 15-minute session, breaking past its intraday consolidation to reach a new local high of 0.59493, just shy of the key 0.59500 psychological resistance. The pair has formed a steady series of higher lows since bottoming out at 0.58942, indicating a clear bullish momentum.
Picture: NZD/USD climbs to 0.5949, eyes 0.5950 breakout as bullish momentum accelerates above 0.5900 support, as seen on the VT Markets app
Price is trading above all three short-term moving averages (5, 10, and 30), with the 5-period MA showing a sharp upward slope—a sign of strong momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is firmly positive and widening, with the signal line lagging behind, suggesting bullish pressure is still building.
If the pair clears the 0.5950 level with volume, the next resistance target sits near 0.5970–0.5980. On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.5925, with a stronger floor at 0.5900 should the uptrend fade.
Cautious Forecast
Despite today’s momentum, broader gains may hinge on Thursday’s government budget release, which is expected to signal spending restraint. Any sharp fiscal tightening could weigh on domestic demand and prompt the RBNZ to stay dovish for longer. Until then, upside moves in NZD/USD remain constructive, but vulnerable to pullbacks on global risk shifts or dovish surprises from the RBNZ.
