Insights 
VT 
Crude oil prices are under pressure due to rising global supply and economic uncertainty. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remains subdued, trading within a narrow range as it attempts to recover from a broader downtrend initiated in January.
WTI Crude Oil is consolidating, trading in a range defined by key Fibonacci retracement levels from the January–April decline. The price is stuck between the 20 and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), acting as dynamic support and resistance areas.
Support Level Analysis
WTI holds above the $62.00 support level, with a potential fall below leading to the next support at around $60.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly above 50 indicates a cautious market tone as traders seek clarity from global fundamentals or geopolitical developments.
WTI Oil, sold on international markets, is a high-quality crude sourced in the US and considered a benchmark in the oil market. Supply and demand predominantly drive its price, while factors like global growth, political instability, and OPEC’s decisions also play a role.
Oil inventory data from the API and EIA reflects supply and demand fluctuations, impacting oil prices. OPEC’s production quotas significantly influence WTI prices, with decisions to adjust quotas affecting supply and subsequently oil prices.
With WTI prices bouncing around the middle of the current retracement zone, short-term positioning becomes more reactive than directional. The tight movement between the 20- and 50-day SMAs—those two common trend-following guides—suggests traders remain hesitant, avoiding firm positions without clearer cues from inventories or macroeconomic signals. It’s not unusual when conflicting data clouds conviction; charts show consolidation, but the foundations that built past rallies aren’t firmly in place this time.
Trader Sentiment and Trends
Looking at daily charts, the lack of momentum to push above the 50-day average implies that buyers are cautious, not yet willing to commit beyond short-term trades. While there’s still some resilience above $62.00, intraday moves don’t show strong appetite, either from the long or short side. Instead, transactions seem driven more by scheduled data and short-lived interest than by any deep conviction. The RSI sitting just over 50 only reinforces this observation. No extreme reading there. In fact, it closely mirrors trader sentiment—tilted slightly positive, but very much waiting.
As stockpile figures from EIA and API start to roll in again, attention should shift toward comparing implied demand trends over several weeks, rather than reacting to single-day deviations. Weekly fluctuations are now more telling for whether global refiners are preparing for higher throughput or scaling back due to lower margins or economic headwinds. We should be comparing one report to another, ideally in sequence, evaluating whether consistent draws or builds are starting to show a larger pattern forming.
OPEC’s decisions continue to anchor expectations, as they traditionally do, but market participants recognise when production guidance stops aligning with actual flows. Last month’s announcements helped stabilise sentiment briefly, but any failure to follow through could now accelerate sell pressure. We would suggest watching physical market pricing—especially spot differentials in Asia or Europe—as an early check against official quota changes. These signals often front-run broader directional moves in futures.
For now, range-trading strategies remain valid, so long as we stay within the band defined by $62.00 below and the region just under the 50-day SMA above. But that doesn’t mean traders can relax. The smallest disruptions—from Chinese import data to unexpected Gulf developments—can change momentum within hours.
We are monitoring U.S. refinery run rates closely; rising rates would indicate builders preparing for summer fuel demand increases, which might strengthen WTI near-term. However, if we see flat runs or unexpected maintenance extending beyond forecasts, caution would remain. Once again, this is where positioning matters: staying flexible and aware of the nearest technical levels makes more sense than holding onto directional bias unsupported by the data.
Keep in mind, implied volatility has been dropping, but this shouldn’t be misread. It doesn’t necessarily reflect comfort or certainty—just the absence of directional conviction. With summer demand patterns setting in and the hurricane season looming, historical trends show that volatility often returns abruptly.
Price movement around the $62.00 support remains key. A clean break lower—particularly if corroborated by a pick-up in volume—would suggest broader acceptance of lower valuations, potentially bringing $60.00 into focus. This would likely trigger further strategic reassessments across crude-linked contracts.
As always, we are comparing data not in isolation, but relative to past expectations. Reactions, rather than the figures themselves, highlight the direction of confidence—or lack thereof—as traders decide how to adjust exposure in the near term.
