Insights 
VT 
The US Dollar is expected to move slightly higher, without reaching the resistance level of 7.2330. Currently, it might trade within the 7.1850 to 7.2450 range as downward momentum has mostly diminished.
In the short term, the currency is predicted to trade between 7.1990 and 7.2190, closing at 7.2140, a marginal change of +0.06%. While upward momentum is developing, it is not strong enough to surpass 7.2330, with another resistance at 7.2250 and support levels at 7.2100 and 7.2000.
Analysts Outlook On USD
Analysts have maintained a negative outlook on the USD since early this month. USD’s inability to make downward progress means that its potential decline towards 7.1700 appears unlikely unless the resistance at 7.2330 is breached. Instead, the USD is expected to remain in the range of 7.1850 to 7.2450 due to the faded downward momentum.
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From what we’re seeing, the Dollar’s movements show some reluctance to commit in either direction with any real strength. The trading action within the 7.1850 to 7.2450 range suggests a market waiting for a deeper push—though neither buyers nor sellers seem eager enough just yet. The recent bounce in short-term momentum has nudged it upward toward 7.2140, but not with the kind of conviction that would overcome resistance layers at 7.2250 or even 7.2330.
When we say upward momentum is developing but isn’t strong enough to break resistance, we’re observing the price’s attempts to edge higher being met with supply. This typically happens when traders who bought lower begin to take profits or when new sellers enter. Support between 7.2100 and 7.2000 is still holding, but if price action were to float below that range, we’d need to look for a volume shift or catalyst to confirm follow-through.
Chan’s perspective from earlier in the month—that the Dollar may weaken—hasn’t exactly been wrong, but the lack of downside movement has limited that view from playing out fully. It’s now being met with some hesitation. What that tells us is that the market isn’t rejecting the idea of a decline entirely, but the conditions don’t yet favour it. For this reason, we aren’t actively pricing in a push toward the 7.1700 handle unless something breaks the current resistance shelf. Until then, this sort of sideways motion between familiar levels tends to favour range-based strategies over breakouts.
Market Strategy And Signals
In practice, that means paying more attention to short bursts of volume at the edges of the range. If price is rejected near the upper bound without accelerating past 7.2330, an intraday rotation downward may occur again. In contrast, a close above that level wouldn’t just be cosmetic—it would show that buyers aren’t just testing but committing. As for the lower support, any clean drop beneath 7.1990 that’s accompanied by increased selling interest might create a window for a test toward 7.1850, but that’s a scenario we watch for rather than pre-load.
From our position, this is not the time to chase strength unless there’s a confirmed break and hold above the range highs. Neutral setups tend to unfold with more clarity when directional momentum is uncertain. We’re watching how price reacts, rather than predicting where it must go next. Let the reaction at the edges guide the bias.
The bounce we saw today was modest, and without broader market support, quite fragile. It seems risk appetite is on standby, and shorter time frames are where clearer signals may reside. We keep our focus on volume at key levels and skip the noise in between.
