The EUR/USD pair is currently trading near 1.13 after a strong intraday rise. This recent movement reflects a recovery post-European session, although there are mixed signals from different timeframes.

Short-term indicators hint at potential pullbacks, while the long-term outlook remains bullish. The Relative Strength Index shows neutral momentum, and the MACD indicates sell pressure, whereas the ADI supports buying pressure.

Moving Averages Analysis

Moving averages offer a more positive long-term perspective, with the 10-day EMAs and SMAs aligning with bullish trends. However, the 20-day SMA suggests selling pressure could act as an obstacle for further recovery.

The 4-hour chart outlook remains bullish, with MACD signalling buy momentum and short-term EMAs and SMAs showing buying interest. Support is located at around 1.1230, with resistance potentially appearing near 1.1280.

Wider Fibonacci levels place support between 1.0400 and 1.0900, while resistance could extend towards 1.1500 and beyond. These details provide context for potential breakout scenarios within the market.

Market Positioning Strategy

The EUR/USD pair is currently consolidating its gains, hovering close to the 1.13 mark after climbing during the intraday session—a move most likely triggered by renewed demand around key technical zones. Despite that apparent strength, the short-term has begun to reflect some hesitation, especially as intraday tools slow down and hint at exhaustion.

In particular, the Relative Strength Index, which gauges momentum, didn’t confirm the latest move. It remained broadly neutral, suggesting that while prices climbed, underlying conviction among market participants may not have been widespread. Meanwhile, the MACD, which tracks trend direction and momentum shifts, has started to print sell-side indications. That contradicts, at least in the shorter run, the clearer trend we see when zooming out. There, data from the Average Directional Index remains supportive of further upside pressure.

When we assess the directional cues through moving averages, certain things stand out. The 10-day exponential and simple lines both support continuation higher. But the 20-day simple moving average continues to act more like resistance under price—often an early indication that follow-through on recent rallies may become harder to sustain without stronger demand volume. Higher timeframe indicators often take longer to adjust but can provide more reliable trend direction when things get uncertain on the lower charts.

Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, that’s where intentions appear clearer at the moment. The MACD has resumed showing bullish momentum, and both EMAs and SMAs have turned upwards, reinforcing buying pressure above recent support. That support, sitting around 1.1230, has become a key level markets have respected, while resistance clusters are beginning to form near 1.1280. If this level gives way, the momentum could carry forward without much friction, at least in the short term.

Beyond this, the broad Fibonacci ranges that stretch from 1.0400 to 1.0900 mark historical zones where a lot of accumulation and reaction has previously taken place. These levels often serve as anchor points, making them reliable for gauging broader structure. On the opposing side, resistance above 1.1500 remains technically viable, especially if the current rally moves beyond immediate hurdles without too much chop, though getting there may take some time.

From our standpoint, watching the confluence between these medium-to-long-range technical signals and short-term hesitation provides a framework to manage positioning. We continue to favour setups where momentum aligns with these larger structures, particularly on dip-buying strategies around support zones, granted the structure of the move remains intact. Being selective and waiting for confirmation on every leg upward or downward will be more helpful than trying to time every move off noise alone. With conflicting signals across timeframes, reaction to specific levels will become the main guide in the coming sessions.

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