The EUR/CHF pair hovers around 0.94, showing small gains amid fluctuating momentum indicators

    by VT Markets
    /
    May 19, 2025

    EUR/CHF is trading near the 0.94 zone, showing minor gains and maintaining a neutral tone with mixed signals. Key support lies below 0.9370, with resistance around 0.9400, as the market remains within its recent range.

    On the daily chart, technical indicators present a mixed outlook. The RSI is in the 50s, indicating neutrality, while the MACD suggests some buy momentum. However, the Awesome Oscillator and Ultimate Oscillator reinforce a neutral stance by hovering near zero. Moving averages show a mix, with the 20-day SMA supporting a buy bias against bearish signals from the 100-day and 200-day SMAs.

    In the 4-hour timeframe, the outlook appears slightly more bullish. The 4-hour MACD is positive and both the 10-period EMA and SMA align with an upside bias. However, the 20-period 4-hour SMA contrasts this with a sell signal and neutral signals from the Bull Bear Power and Ultimate Oscillator.

    Immediate support levels are at 0.9368, 0.9366, and 0.9364, while resistance is noted at 0.9373, 0.9390, and 0.9407. Broader Fibonacci clusters indicate deeper support from 0.9000 to 0.9200 and resistance extending from 0.9600 to 0.9800.

    Despite EUR/CHF lingering just above 0.94, the movement appears constrained, echoing recent trading ranges rather than any renewed conviction. We’re seeing a tug-of-war near a relatively narrow corridor, with buyers lacking the strength to push decisively past resistance levels, while sellers haven’t reclaimed the lower end with authority either.

    Looking at the broader view, the indicators on the daily chart reflect an indecisive market. Although the Relative Strength Index stays afloat in the mid-50s—typical of balance in demand and supply—it hasn’t convincingly diverged to give us a clear trajectory. The MACD leans modestly to the buy side, showing a slightly increasing appetite for risk, but that support is undermined by the Awesome Oscillator and Ultimate Oscillator which remain largely flat. Their proximity to zero underlines an absence of strong directional energy, which reduces the likelihood of any sharp near-term swings.

    The split amongst the moving averages adds another layer of hesitation. While the 20-day Simple Moving Average pushes upward, pointing to pressure from the bulls, it’s offset sharply by both the 100 and 200-day averages pulling in the opposite direction, which typically reflects hesitation about long-term strength. This divergence is rarely ignored and will likely weigh on sentiment for those watching medium- to long-term positioning.

    When shifting down into the 4-hour window, the tone begins to change subtly. There, short-term momentum improves somewhat. The MACD is still positive, marking a rhythm that tilts in favour of continued buying pressure. The alignment of the 10-period Exponential and Simple Moving Averages in the same upward direction lends support to a shorter-term upward lean. However, it’s worth noting that this is not a resounding buy signal—the 20-period SMA on the same chart falls just below current price action, acting as a warning that this isn’t a clean trend. Additional hesitation is visible in the neutral stance from Bull Bear Power and Ultimate Oscillator figures, each suggesting that traders have yet to resolve the direction.

    From a levels perspective, immediate support remains narrowly stacked between 0.9368 and 0.9364—a tight cluster that would likely not provide deep support should pressure increase. Resistance points, particularly 0.9390 and 0.9407, are relatively close as well, and given the recent lack of volume through this range, we would expect these levels to be contested rather than cleanly broken.

    The larger Fibonacci areas—which extend down to 0.9000 on the support side, and up to 0.9800 above—serve more as longer-term markers. While we’re trading well above the lower end of that range for now, those wider bands often act as the magnets during broader macro shifts or volatility injections.

    For those watching implied volatility or building positions based on directional bets, it’s important to be wary of overcommitting in either direction too quickly. The mixed signals across timeframes make this a market better suited to nimble strategies, rather than strongly directional ones. The key in the coming days will be whether the buyers can hold above the narrow support shelf, while simultaneously testing resistance near 0.9400 with wider enthusiasm. Until that happens, momentum will likely remain interrupted by false starts and shallow retracements.

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