China’s new home prices for April 2025 showed no change month-over-month, remaining steady at 0.0%. This mirrors the previous month, which also reported a 0.0% change.

Comparatively, year-over-year figures indicated a 4.0% drop in prices, an improvement from the previous 4.5% decrease. These statistics suggest ongoing challenges in China’s housing sector.

Ongoing Challenges In Housing Sector

April marks the 23rd consecutive month of declines in the housing market. The month-over-month figures reveal a slight drop of -0.12%, compared to March’s -0.08% decrease.

The latest figures on China’s home prices indicate a housing sector that remains stubbornly weak. Prices did not move at all between March and April 2025, staying flat for the second month in a row. That kind of stagnation may seem like a pause, but it’s taking place against the backdrop of a market that’s been struggling for nearly two years.

Year-on-year, things do show a narrowing gap—prices are down 4.0% compared with last April, which is marginally better than the 4.5% decline seen previously. Still, this marks the 23rd month in a row where prices have fallen on an annual basis. That number alone tells us the strain is far from over.

The monthly picture worsened slightly. After slipping 0.08% in March, prices ticked down 0.12% in April. It may not sound dramatic, but this shift subtly points to the continuing downward force in play. This environment is now familiar, dominated by developer distress and still-weak buyer sentiment, compounded by project delays and investor caution. Regulatory tolerance for easing has increased, yet it’s failing to translate into a shift in tide.

Policy Tools And Market Response

Wang, a respected voice on China’s economy, notes that the lack of monthly improvement implies that policy tools—while numerous—aren’t being picked up fast enough by the wider market. There’s a fragmented handover of confidence. On one side, the central government is focused on stabilising sentiment, releasing supportive policies. On the other, local governments and financial institutions are dragging their feet, reluctant to underwrite more risk.

Lee offers a more granular view, explaining that while upper-tier cities are showing some early signs of levelling off, lower-tier regions remain a drag. They’re weighed down by excessive inventory, falling developer credibility, and weak population growth. This discrepancy, though, allows for a level of clarity. Markets tied more to financial speculation rather than real housing demand will take much longer to see stability.

So, what can we take from this if we’re observing closely tied contracts? The consistency of the downturn—23 straight months—should not be ignored. Pricing momentum remains negative, and the lack of month-to-month recovery adds weight to the possibility of continued downside in housing-oriented instruments.

We’re looking at a market where structural repair, while underway, is far from reaching the finish line. That means pricing pressure is likely to linger, or even resume with more conviction, particularly if upcoming policy shifts stall or if sentiment fumbles again. Timing is everything here. Monitoring next month’s data will be more than just another datapoint—it can serve as a pivot for short-dated positions or a catalyst for recalibrating intermediate exposure.

The narrowing year-on-year decline may offer relief for some, but it isn’t a turnaround. The sequential weakening in April cautions against interpreting deceleration as strength. It’s not the sharpness of the fall anymore—it’s the slope that matters.

Deviations between major and minor cities shouldn’t be overlooked, either. Where location-specific instruments apply, performance may start to divide. That’s where a bit more calibration is due. Tailored plays can do well in asymmetrical stories, particularly in split-tier cities where top-down policy may favour certain regional recovery models first.

Longer horizons still face uncertainty. With the broader economy not picking up pace fast enough and developers maintaining defensive strategies, durable rebounds in real estate-linked valuations continue to face headwinds. For now, discipline matters—not just in direction but duration. Where volatility compresses, pricing nuance becomes the differentiator.

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