West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $62, showing recovery after a brief decline. It received support at the $55 zone, forming a potential double-bottom structure on the daily chart. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, such as rising Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) output and possible Iranian oil return, continue to impact market sentiment.

OPEC+ Production Risks

OPEC+’s decision to raise production introduces risks to oil markets. Key members, like Saudi Arabia, are less inclined to bear production cut burdens, warning that the voluntary 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) reductions might end by Q4 2025 without improved quota discipline.

Progress on a United States-Iran nuclear deal is limiting oil’s rebound. Analysts anticipate the deal could reintroduce 800,000 bpd of Iranian oil supply, adding pressure to the market.

WTI remains above the $60 level, defending the $55 base, the lowest since 2021. The price has reclaimed the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $61.29, showing short-term bullish signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 50.70, and the MACD histogram shows positive recovery signs, though challenges remain near the $65 resistance. Further movement depends on updates regarding Iran, OPEC+ policies, and macroeconomic data.

The current state of WTI crude, trading around $62 after bouncing off support at $55, offers several technical and fundamental talking points. That $55 level setup, which appears to be forming what’s known as a “double-bottom”, has historically been viewed as a reversal zone—a sort of last stand for the bulls. This pattern often marks exhaustion in selling pressure, meaning we may have witnessed the worst of the downside, at least in the near term. The fact that WTI has managed to trade back above its 21-day EMA and hover near $61.29 suggests that short-term momentum, while not overwhelming, leans positive.

Yet this technical resilience comes with some friction. The RSI sitting at 50.70, for example, doesn’t give much away in terms of conviction. It’s a neutral reading—neither stretched to the upside nor the downside. This leaves scope for movement in either direction. The MACD histogram’s return to positive territory adds to the case for short-term strength, but caution must prevail as long as the price remains capped below $65. That resistance, if tested again, will determine how strong the buyers really are.

Supply and Demand Tug of War

Now, on the broader picture—what we’re observing is essentially a tug-of-war between supply anticipation and technical demand signals. With OPEC+ pushing higher output volumes into the market, especially with less reliable coordination among members, there’s a built-in uncertainty around whether production cuts will hold. Riyadh’s openness about possibly ending the voluntary reductions unless others improve compliance only raises concerns over future cohesion within the alliance.

Throw into the mix the potential return of Iranian barrels—up to 800,000 per day if nuclear diplomacy sees progress—the market faces the reality of more oil chasing possibly stagnant demand. The capacity of Iran to ramp up production in a relatively short time could overwhelm current support levels, unless other producers scale back in response, which remains an open question.

From a trading standpoint, our immediate focus remains on the integrity of the $60–$55 support range. If these levels continue to hold despite increasing supply threats, then the price action will likely form a base that invites more participants to test resistance levels above $65. Volume confirmation and intraday volatility metrics will be especially telling here—if bullish flows intensify near $63–$64, it may create a pressure point on short positions.

Monitoring scheduled updates from international bodies and policy decisions—not only from oil-exporting nations but also from global central banks—will remain essential. Particular attention should be paid to inflation and GDP releases in major consuming economies, such as the US and China, as these will directly influence positioning ahead of key expiry cycles.

Looking ahead, gamma positioning and skew flattening should also be reviewed closely, especially as price approaches levels where options dealers may need to adjust deltas more aggressively. Increasing open interest in calls near $65 would suggest positioning for an upward breakout, whereas renewed put activity below $60 might signal bearish sentiment regaining traction.

We remain alert to any shifting tone from Vienna or Washington that might prompt a recalibration in directional bias. Price action close to headline releases or unexpected diplomatic developments will likely drive intraday volatility spikes, and those moments require clear levels, strict risk parameters, and scenario mapping pre-trade.

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