Insights 
VT 
OPEC has kept its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 unchanged. A recent 90-day trade deal between the US and China could support the normalisation of trade flows.
Oil supply outside OPEC+ is projected to increase by 800,000 barrels per day this year, revised down from an earlier estimate of 900,000 barrels per day. There is an expected 5% decrease in investment in exploration and production outside the OPEC+ group in 2025.
Us Oil Supply Growth
The growth forecast for US oil supply in 2025 has been adjusted to 300,000 barrels per day, reduced from a previous figure of 400,000 barrels per day. In April 2025, OPEC+ crude oil output averaged 40.92 million barrels per day, a decline of 106,000 barrels per day from March.
The easing of trade tensions between the US and China is seen as beneficial for the crude oil market. There is potential for breaking out to new highs as the market consolidates at a key resistance zone.
What we’re looking at here is a broadly stable demand outlook on the part of OPEC, which has opted not to revise its projections for 2025 and 2026. That tells us there’s no shift expected from core consumption markets, and no major change anticipated in the rate at which oil is being used globally, at least from their side. So, no ramps or slowdowns from the demand front—just a continuation of earlier expectations.
Meanwhile, on the supply side, things are shifting a little more. The reduction in the forecast for oil output growth outside of OPEC+—trimmed now to 800,000 barrels per day for this year—is indicative of supply tightening slightly more than originally expected. This is reinforced by the updated figures for exploration and production spending, which are now set to fall by 5% in 2025 among producers outside the alliance. Reduced investment tends to show where producer sentiment is heading, and in this case, they don’t appear to be preparing for aggressive output expansion.
Opec Plus Production Fluctuations
The United States figures are even more specific. The projected supply increase for 2025 is being revised down, from 400,000 to 300,000 barrels per day. That adjustment isn’t enormous, but when aligned with falling investment and shrinking non-OPEC+ output growth, it adds another piece to the broader picture. It implies that internal supply growth is losing a bit of momentum.
OPEC+ themselves aren’t exempt from short-term fluctuations either. Their April production was down by over 100,000 barrels a day compared with March. Though not a dramatic fall, it serves as a reminder that even coordinated producers experience volatility in month-to-month output. This may stem from planned maintenance or strategic volume adjustments designed to keep prices within a comfortable range.
Now, the détente between Washington and Beijing—at least in trade terms—adds an element that recent months have lacked: a degree of stability around global trade flows. If that persists through the 90-day window, one of the world’s largest bilateral trading channels becomes less volatile, which tends to improve sentiment across commodity markets, particularly those like crude oil that are sensitive to transport activity and industrial production levels.
Technically, the price action we’re seeing confirms that the market has tested a resistance level and has so far managed to stay there. For those of us tracking derivatives, that’s often where breakouts are born—markets that have failed to push higher tend to retrace, but this one has extended its stay. That suggests the energy behind the move has not dissipated.
Traders would not be wrong to monitor implied volatilities around key expiry points. If resistance does finally give way, what follows may come with increased price range and more pronounced intra-day moves. It’s worth noting how the options structure adjusts with these developments—watch closely for changes in skew, because they can offer early hints of directional bias among large positioning players.
Moreover, front-month time spreads should be observed for any early signs of tightening. If backwardation does steepen while the broader structure holds above resistance, the stronger hands in the market may already be planning for higher spot prices. When spot drawers become more confident, you can often see them pull barrels faster and push front contracts higher relative to future ones.
As prices bump up against these levels, we find ourselves watching fewer fundamentals and paying more attention to positioning mechanics: open interest, roll dates, delta shifts. It’s in these moments that non-linear moves often start.
All told, right now, the data points aren’t creating high drama, but the adjustments—small and steady—are leaning bullish. It doesn’t take declarations to change direction; persistent undercurrents are enough.
