Fitch Ratings indicates that Australia’s banks demonstrate resilience, supporting their current ratings. Earnings for these banks are expected to face challenges yet remain broadly stable in 2025.

Net interest margins (NIM) are projected to contract in 2025 and 2026 due to anticipated interest rate cuts, though the impact might be limited. Competition is also expected to affect NIMs negatively. Asset quality has started to stabilise in the first half of the financial year 2025.

Capital Positioning and Liquidity

Australian banks maintain prudent capital positioning amid global uncertainty, ensuring stability. Their funding metrics are broadly stable, and liquidity levels remain strong, providing additional protection against global economic uncertainties.

Fitch has revised Australia’s outlook from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’, though it affirms the current rating. This reflects a cautious view on the future but recognises the banks’ existing strengths and preparedness.

This update from Fitch Ratings gives us a relatively clear signal: although pressures are emerging, the Australian banking sector still holds firm footing. When we break it down, the expected narrowing of net interest margins—driven mostly by rate reductions and ongoing competition—will likely compress profit buffers. That doesn’t mean a sudden drop in earnings, but it does imply less room for error going forward. From what we see, banks have already begun preparing for this by preserving large capital reserves and keeping funding sources stable.

Asset quality showing signs of stabilisation is worth noting. It suggests that we may be approaching the far side of stress, particularly in credit exposures. If these early signs are reliable, then we expect the flow of new bad debts to ease, though existing portfolios will still need watching—closely. We also understand this stabilisation to be uneven across loan types, pointing particularly to residential mortgages holding better than small business credit lines.

Despite the negative revision to the country’s outlook, the affirmation of ratings reinforces the view that underlying fundamentals are intact. This change in outlook, from stable to negative, isn’t about current cracks, but rather future concerns—likely linked to broader fiscal pressures and less fiscal space. In other words, no downgrade yet, but the door’s slightly ajar.

Liquidity and Market Adjustments

What’s also been made clear is that banks continue to maintain strong liquidity positions. That matters more than usual now. With global markets sending mixed signals and central banks expected to begin cutting interest rates, ample liquidity cushions will let balance sheets adjust without taking sudden hits.

Considering all this, we think it’s appropriate to adjust our tactical approach. With pressures on margins expected to rise and competition tightening—particularly from second-tier lenders and digital players—it’s time to consider volatility in these names increasing. Not necessarily because of default risk, but on earnings guidance revisions.

Where funding profiles remain stable, we see fewer direct risks flowing into derivatives pricing. However, implied volatility in longer-term options may start creeping higher if market consensus around the timing or extent of rate cuts shifts. Particularly if cuts happen sooner or are deeper than the current curve assumes.

Spruiking capital strength alone won’t be enough if return on equity begins sliding. That’s when sentiment starts moving ahead of fundamentals. We’re factoring this into both premium pricing and short-dated positions. The story here, then, is less about current balance sheet soundness and more about earnings sustainability within softening top-line conditions.

From our side, we’re placing more attention on loan portfolio breakdowns and hedging disclosures. That’s where early warning signs will come from, especially for institutions with higher exposure to refinancing risks. We also expect equity analysts to start becoming more aggressive in revising forward earnings for late 2025 and into 2026.

There won’t be any sudden trigger, but the combination of lower interest income and flat fee growth adds up over time. For us, this reinforces the strategic importance of watching changes in default assumptions and how banks adjust provisioning models—particularly at half-year updates and year-end statements.

All things considered, basic stability remains in place, but conditions are tightening. We’ve already adjusted some derivative pricing strategies ahead of guidance updates. Tracking this space over the next months will be less about default risk and more about earnings coverage and how fast sentiment can shift when top-line pressure meets market expectations.

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