Insights 
VT 
Crude oil futures have risen to $63.67, marking an increase of $1.72 or 2.78%. This price hike follows an upward trend over five of the last six trading days, increasing by 11.38% since May 5 when it was $57.15.
Today’s closing price is the highest since April 17, which closed at $63.68. The next important price level is the 50% midpoint of the range since April 2020, at $64.71, with recent highs approaching but not surpassing this mark.
Price Rally Driven By Multiple Factors
The price rally is driven by easing trade tensions, a new U.S.–UK deal, and anticipated stronger demand with the U.S. driving season approaching. Yet, rising global supply limits these gains, as OPEC+ adds back 2.2 million barrels per day, and the EIA predicts inventory builds throughout the year.
We’ve seen a rather sharp ascent in crude futures lately, pushing through previous resistance levels with some conviction. Prices have added over $6.50 per barrel in just over a fortnight, a move that stands out not only for its magnitude but also its persistence. Five of the past six sessions closed higher – the sort of stretch that tends to draw attention from short-term traders and forces a reassessment of risk-reward across positions.
The fact that this latest close came one cent shy of the April 17 peak matters more than it might initially appear. When prices flirt with previous highs without yet clearing them, we’re often at one of those stages where technical positioning becomes more heated. Any decisive push beyond that April level would bring into play the 50% retracement of the post-pandemic move — a figure around $64.71 — not because it holds any magical power, but because markets tend to cluster orders near such points. We’ve seen it often enough to understand it lends gravity to price action.
We should not, however, assume this burst upward is unshakable. While factors such as improving trade relations and an upcoming spike in driving season usage have buoyed sentiment, the reality of steady increases in supply clouds the medium-term picture. The OPEC+ producer group is gradually restoring cuts and the U.S. government’s energy body, the EIA, forecasts ongoing inventory accumulation. That’s a poor backdrop for sustaining higher pricing unless demand can overcome those bulges consistently.
Market Sentiment And Trade Strategy
Brennan, who covers global energy flows, has hinted that the broader product market still looks heavy – so even though headline crude is supported, refined products aren’t rallying in lockstep. This narrows refinery margins and may eventually dampen throughput if it continues, especially as summer wears on.
From our corner, reading between the lines, this environment offers a classic setup for traders to lean into shorter-term volatility rather than long directional bets. Bring stops in tighter. Options with near-term expiries, particularly straddles and strangles, could deliver value while markets continue their tug-of-war between softening supply cuts and revived consumption optimism. Delta positioning needs reviewing regularly given headline risk.
As always during phases like this – where price is hugging major inflection points but hasn’t broken clear of them – chart levels gain importance not just for entries, but for exits. We need to stay prepared to unwind swiftly if this lift in futures begins to lose steam — especially once we get clearer inventories data later in the month. If that incoming data confirms the inventories narrative, retracements to lower support bands aren’t just possible; they would likely find limited resistance.
So while the market mood has turned decisively positive in recent days, we remain mindful of the supply-side creep and the execution risk surrounding upcoming macro releases. A careful pair of hands is far better suited than bold conviction at this stage.
