AUDUSD attempted to move higher, reaching a high of 0.64419, but reversed after stalling at the 200-day moving average near 0.6458. This led the pair back below the 100/200 hour moving averages at 0.64349, indicating a shift to a neutral-to-bearish bias in the short term.

Momentum is now pointing lower, with immediate support targets at the swing level of 0.63646, the high of the lower swing area at 0.63437, and the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart near 0.6325. The low of the swing area is at 0.63216, and a break below this could increase bearish pressure with targets at the 100-day MA of 0.6289 and 38.2% retracement level at 0.62844.

challenges for sellers

Reversing back above the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 100/200 hour moving averages at 0.64399 would challenge the sellers. A move above the 200-day MA would further counteract bearish sentiment. Sellers are aiming for lower targets post-rejection, but need to break several levels, including those above, to solidify a bearish outlook further.

The current price behaviour of AUDUSD shows a noticeable failure to maintain upside movement upon testing a widely-watched technical boundary—the 200-day moving average. This level, which sat at approximately 0.6458, proved too much initially, prompting a retreat that led the currency pair beneath two short-term indicators, namely the 100- and 200-hour moving averages. Those averages, converging around 0.64349, were acting as an area of immediate support that, once breached, fostered a shift in directional bias in favour of sellers. Some short positions likely re-engaged following the failure at the daily level and the decisive breakdown through the hourly metrics.

At the moment, downside momentum appears to be maintaining a degree of pressure. We’re watching for responses near the 0.63646 swing support as the first test zone. Should that give way, the subsequent cluster near 0.63437—as well as the horizontal structure down to 0.63216—becomes focal. There’s a confluence near that lower bound, thanks to the proximity of the 200-bar average on the 4-hour chart (around 0.6325), so eyes will likely remain trained there. If that point crumbles, technical conditions would offer little excuse for a pause before seeing whether the 100-day average at 0.6289 draws attention. Confluence with the 38.2% retracement at 0.62844 adds weight to that region being closely tracked by trend followers eyeing deeper downside.

regaining balance

From where we stand, regaining control over the 100-bar average on the 4-hour is necessary just to pull this structure back towards balance. That specific average is near 0.64399, aligning closely with the 100- and 200-hour levels breached earlier. Should this triangular confluence of resistance be cleared, it would indicate that short-term sellers are fading. But unless it’s followed up by a breach of the 200-day average, lasting strength likely remains in question. Hence, even talk of mean reversion would face considerable technical resistance going forward.

What this pattern tells us right now, rather straightforwardly, is that momentum is pressing in favour of continuation lower, so long as price remains capped underneath familiar levels. The initial rejection from the daily average was sharp enough to suggest some conviction behind the move, which could take time to unwind. This doesn’t offer a lot of encouragement to try guesses at near-term bottoms without a clearer signal. At each of the lower steps—0.6364, 0.6343, 0.6321—we’re likely to find whether there’s any folding underway or whether positions continue to favour the trend.

Longer-term directional clarity remains tied to the degree of response near the 0.6280s, but the next few sessions will probably revolve around how the market handles this current pocket of support. If sellers show up hard again here, dip buyers will need to remain extremely measured in how they manage risk.

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